Double Dutch, 17th October 2013
Good old Burlington Bertie! Two winners at 100/30 combined to give us a winning 17.78/1 double yesterday, courtesy of Betfred's rather generous early BOG odds.
On those days, like yesterday, where the two "second choices" come in as winners, there's often a large discrepancy between early odds and SP.
The SPs of our winners yesterday (11/4 & 9/4) would still have produced a nice 11.18/1 double, but why leave 37% of your potential winnings on the table? Here at Geegeez, we can't stress enough how important it is to get the very best price available.
Yesterday's results were as follows:
Thorpe: won at 100/30 (SP was 11/4)
Three Kingdoms: won at 100/30 (SP 9/4)
Wild Card: 3rd
Trial to date:
45 winning selections from 153 = 29.41%
13 winning doubles in 42 days = 30.95%
P/L : -1.10pts (-1.33% ROI)
Our fourth success in the last six days now leaves us tantalisingly within touching distance if that elusive break even point, so I'm hoping we'll be in the black tonight after these races...
Although Standing Ovation only won by a neck last time out at Exeter a week ago, he did idle somewhat during the race and if kept up to his work today, he should have plenty in reserve to secure back to back wins. And although he carries a 7lb penalty for last week's win, he's actually still a couple of pounds well in at the weights, based on his future mark. I fancy him to take this one at 15/8 with BetVictor.
Of the rest, Glenwood Prince looks easily the best, he's by far th e least exposed and is an interesting recruit to chase handicaps. He has run well in Irish point races in the past and his breeding suggests he'll make a decent staying chaser. He came back to the track at the start of this month after a break of over six months and stayed 3 miles pretty well, albeit over hurdles. He's sure to come on for that run and if his jumping is sound, he's a likely challenger at 100/30 (Coral)
Art of Logistics was a pretty smart sort in his short bumper/hurdling career before switching to chasing. Three wins and a place from six races preceded his victory in his first chase contest 12 days ago at Gowran Park. He rose to a mark of 132 over hurdles within four races and culminated in him having a crack at the Grade 1 Champion Novice Hurdle at Punchestown back in April.
Neither his last race nor this one are near that standard and if he performs to his undoubted ability he should take this relatively easily at 5/4 (Boylesports). It would be a much closer contest, however, had Darwins Fox not had to concede 8lbs to him here.
Darwins Fox represents Henry de Bromhead, whose horses have won this race twice in the last five years and this horse is already proven at this Grade 3 level, having won a similar contest at Roscommon 18 days ago and comes here in good nick chasing a hat-trick. The added weight is likely to be his undoing, but he's an excellent alternate pick at 7/4 (William Hill), should the favourite's jumping not be up to scratch under pressure.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Standing Ovation/ Art of Logistics @ 6.19 with Boylesports
Standing Ovation / Darwins Fox @ 7.92 with BetVictor
Glenwood Prince / Art of Logistics @ 9.74 with Boylesports
Glenwood Prince / Darwins Fox @ 11.91 with Stan James