Double Dutch, 17th September 2013
If you looked in an illustrated dictionary for the definiton of frustrated, you'd probably have seen my ugly mug in there. In fact frustrated doesn't really cover how I felt after the completion of Monday's selected races.
I highlighted the 8/1 Father Fred as the main danger to the short priced Big Storm Coming and so it proved. Father Fred beat the favourite by a length in a 1-2 which paid almost 19/1 on the Excata. You think I'd have been pleased, but not so.
The problem was that the two fancied runners in race 1 were caught on the hop by a 16/1 outsider, although the booking of Joe Fanning to ride the lesser fancied Johnston runner should have given us all a clue.
Yesterday's results were as follows:
Black Treacle : 2nd at 6/5
Princess Tamay : unplaced (3rd of 5)
Big Storm Coming : 2nd at 5/4 (SP 11/10)
Father Fred : 8/1 winner
Trial to date:
9 winning selections from 45 = 20.00%
1 winning doubles in 12 days
P/L : -15.00pts (-65.3% ROI)
The poor run continues, but we're unlikely to get as close to a 20/1 double as yesterday without actually landing it, so we persevere, whilst still publishing all our results (good or bad, unlike some others!). So, with that in mind, we're off to the seaside, hoping to come home with more than just candy floss!
Handicap contests at Yarmouth invariably go to runners in the top two in the market and I see no reason to go against the grain in this one either, with good cases to be made for both market leaders, between whom there's likely to be very little in the market.
Ghaawy was third to Chief Barker at Sandown two races ago in a race where the form is working out pretty well and then he further franked that form by landing a Chepstow maiden last time out. Thios horse holds a Derby entry and bigger/better things than this contest are expected of him.
Yet no matter how good he might be or might become, it would be foolish to disregard Godolphin's Solidarity, who was an easy winner at Epsom last time out and will benefit from Mickael Barzalona's expertise on a track where he has an excellent 23% strike rate overall and 44% when wearing the Godolphin blue.
Current best prices for these two are 2/1 & 9/4 with Paddy Power.
Shrewd is 3/3 on soft and/or heavy ground and is sure to relish the cut underfoot here today and the bare result of his 10th place finish last time out doesn't tell the full story. That was a big handicap at Ascot (£97,000) on unsuitable good ground and despite finishing down the field behind some decent horses, he was only actually beaten by 4 lengths and with conditions more to his liking, looks set for a big run today.
The money, however is likely to be on the Gosden/Buick combination with their runner, Thomas Hobson. This one is unbeaten in his two handicap outings to date including a comfortable 4 length victory at Leicester on soft ground at the end of July. He backed that up with a 9lb rise-defying win at Newbury last time out. This represents a step up in trip and in class, but he doesn't look like he has finished improving just yet.
Best price on these two at the time of press was 7/2 and 13/8 (Boylesports)
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Ghaawy / Shrewd @ 12.00 with Bet365 and/or Paddy Power
Ghaawy / Thomas Hobson @ 7.86 with Bet365 and/or Paddy Power
Solidarity / Shrewd @ 13.00 with BetVictor and/or Paddy Power
Solidarity / Thomas Hobson @ 8.52 with BetVictor and/or Paddy Power