Double Dutch, 17th September 2014
We came a nose away from landing successive doubles yesterday, as Kinshasa narrowly failed to overhaul a previous course and distance winner who'd got his head in front approaching the final furlong.
Kinshasa only had a length to make up, but looked to labour a little and didn't seem to pickup as expected, handing Notarised a hard-fought success, having had to be driven from a long way out, to just cling on by a nose (the print looked even tighter than that!)
This meant that Verse of Love's win at Chepstow only counted for pride, which was a real pity after he'd drifted out to 5/2 from an earlier price of 15/8. He was also involved in a tight finish, just holding on to score by a neck, beating off Good Authority, who proved me wrong by finishing 3 lengths ahead of my other pick Charles Molson.
All of which shows how fine the lines are between success and failure!
Tuesday's results were as follows:
Verse of Love : won at 5/2 (adv 15/8)
Charles Molson: 3rd at 3/1 (adv 100/30)
Kinshasa: 2nd at 15/8 (adv 2/1)
Alex Vino: 3rd at 5/2 (adv 5/2)
Results to date:
350 winning selections from 1230 = 28.46%
115 winning bets in 320 days = 35.94%
P/L : +66.05pts (+10.30% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Here's how I'm playing it on Wednesday...
There might well be 12 runners down to contest this Class 5 maiden, but there's some dross amongst them and I can't see the prize being taken away from the top two in the market.
Grand Proposal was third in a Class 2 nursery just over six weeks ago and although still a maiden after six starts, has run pretty consistently (543347) and does at least know what the game is about. This is quite a big drop in standard from that Class 2 outing at Goodwood, where he stayed on well in the closing stages, actually giving the impression he could go further in future. prior to that run, he had finished third here over course and distance (hd,sh), so we know he'll get the track too.
In a weak looking contest, this could be the day that Grand Proposal finally gets off the mark at a reasonable price of 9/4 BOG.
The main obstacle in his way is the similarly 9/4 BOG priced Multi Grain, who with finished of 5443, has been progressing nicely if not quickly! His last outing was just over three weeks ago at Newcastle when beaten into third place by just less than three lengths. That was over a mile and he finished quite strongly in a much better (Class 2 handicap) race than this one today.
The drop back into maiden company gives Multi Grain a chance to put his experience to good use and the major gulf in class between the last race and this make him a major player and the only really viable alternative to Grand Proposal.
A decent looking Listed contest here that could very well go the way of Water Hole who will be bidding to land a 4th career victory in only her sixth start. She was beaten by half a length at Kempton on debut last year before winning three races on the bounce. Last time out, she finished third, beaten by just a length and a quarter at Group 3 level and this drop back in class should be enough to get her back to winning ways.
Water Hole appears to act well on all ground conditions and the way she has stayed on in her previous outings suggests that today's extra two furlongs will be ideal for her, making her my pick at 11/4 BOG.
Ability-wise, there's probably very little between Albasharah and Hadaatha, but the former has clear temperament issues and is likely to need a run. She last ran on 6th July 2013, when a close third in the Lancashire Oaks (Group 2) at Haydock. She reappeared at York three weeks later, but was unruly in the stalls and threw her jockey off when the gates opened, taking no part in the race. She hasn't raced for 14 months now and a recent attempt at Salisbury (5 weeks ago) saw her refuse to enter the stalls.
So this leaves us with Hadaatha, who is no mug either. She won a Class 4 maiden on debut in April and followed that up with a fine third place run in a Listed event at Newbury four weeks later. She hasn't raced since then, but is highly regarded and holds a couple of Group 1 entries. I'd rather she'd been in action more recently than 4 months ago, but you know that Roger Varian will have her spot on for a comeback in a bid to add to his recent fine form (5/19 in the last week) with a 4/1 BOG winner here.
4 x 0.5pt E/W doubles as follows:
Grand Proposal / Water Hole @ 11.19/1 (9/4 & 11/4 : Coral, Ladbrokes & Betfair)
Grand Proposal / Hadaatha @ 15.25/1 (9/4 & 4/1 : generally)
Multi Grain / Water Hole @ 11.19/1 (9/4 & 11/4 : Coral, Ladbrokes & Betfair)
Multi Grain / Hadaatha @ 15.25/1 (9/4 & 4/1 : generally)