Double Dutch, 18th April 2014
The only thing I got right on Thursday was the finishing order of my selections! Both first choices finished ahead of the alternate picks, but third and fourth places in each race was the best I could muster.
Thankfully, days like this are rare, so there's no point dwelling on it and we'll move on sharply!
Thursday's results were as follows:
Baby Shine: 3rd at 15/8 (adv 2/1)
Tempest River: 4th at 15/8 (adv 7/2)
Expose: 3rd at 3/1 (adv 9/4)
Waseem Faris: 4th at 4/1 (adv 7/2)
Results to date:
213 winning selections from 743 = 28.66%
70 winning bets in 194 days = 36.08%
P/L : +60.91pts (+15.86% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Not much to go at today and the Lingfield card is very competitive, so we'll head North...
With the likely non-appearance of Kingsgate Choice, the official ratings say that Heeraat and Morawij are the best two horses here and I find little to disagree with there.
Heeraat is likely to go off as favourite and currently trades at around the 15/8 BOG mark and should be fresh for this after a break of over six months since last running at Ascot. He acquitted himself well that day finishing 4th in a large field Group 3 contest and has run well in several other races at a higher level than today. He has a record of 3 wins and 3 places from 8 starts at this Class 2 level, but does have some Listed form and he also won a Group 3 race at Newbury last summer.
I see Heeraat as the likely winner, despite the break and the burden of top weight. The most likely challenger is the afore-mentioned Morawij, currently a 7/2 BOG chance with Coral and he's no mug either. His first four races including a Class 5 maiden victory on debut, a win in a Listed race at Sandown and a narrow (head) defeat in a Group 3 contest at Goodwood.
He landed another Listed contest at Sandown last summer and was a good third in another Group 3 event at The Curragh on his last start. He's had a lengthy break from racing of almost 10 months, but he runs to anything like what he's capable of, this could be a very interesting shoot-out indeed.
Naburn stayed on well to win at Catterick nine days ago and the presence of a 5lb claimer in the saddle almost negates his 6lb penalty for that win, meaning he's poised to go close once more. He might well require a career best performance to land this, but he's in good heart from that recent win and in truth, this looks a weaker affair than the Catterick race. One positive stat we have is that the jockey Mr O R L Sangster is 4/4 when riding for Alan Swinbank! You can back Naburn at 3/1 BOG.
Often, in these Amateur Riders' race, the booking of the jockey is crucial, as a more talented amateur will get more out of a horse than might be expected. Cue Serena Brotherton, who is one of the better amateurs around and has a 4/9 record in these types of races this year. Today she partners the 11yr old veteran Categorical, better known nowadays as a chaser and who was a Class 3 winner over 2m4f at Newcastle just six weeks ago.
Categorical hasn't run on the flat since appearing at Redcar six months ago, but a winter jumps campaign will have kept him fit and he has won once and finished second twice in hos last four runs at today's 1m6f trip, including a short-head defeat here over course and distance when beaten by La Bacouetteuse, who went on to win another couple of races. Categorical certainly won't be found lacking in stamina and looks a decent bet at 11/4 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Heeraat / Categorical @ 9.78/1 (15/8 & 11/4 : BetVictor)
Heeraat / Naburn @ 10.50/1 (15/8 & 3/1 : BetVictor)
Morawij / Categorical @ 14/1 (3/1 & 11/4 : BetVictor)
Morawij / Naburn @ 15/1 (3/1 & 3/1 : BetVictor)