Double Dutch, 18th December 2014
Another winner/runner-up combo was our fate yesterday, but it wasn't as narrow a defeat as Tuesday with Winston Churchill going down by six lengths after having led until the last fence, but had nothing left for the run-in. This was a pity, as we'd got on him at 5/1. Greenlaw came home a disappointing 4th of 5 finishers, more than 30 lengths off the pace.
This meant that Volunteer Point's win on debut counted for very little, other than me calling it right. She drifted out from our advised 7/4 BOG to 11/4 at one point before being returned the 9/4 BOG winner with Rahmah being backed into favouritism, but only managing to finish third, almost two lengths adrift.
All of which meant we were close but not close enough yet again, missing out on an 18.5/1 payout this time.
Wednesday's results were as follows:
Winston Churchill : 2nd at 4/1 (adv 5/1)
Greenlaw : u/p at 15/8 (adv 9/4)
Volunteer Point : won at 9/4 (adv 7/4)
Rahmah : 3rd at 11/10 (adv 2/1)
Results to date:
439 winning selections from 1526 = 28.77%
139 winning bets in 396 days = 35.10%
P/L : +83.61pts (+10.54% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
A little later than intended/usual (burst pipes!), here are Thursday's selected races...
Toot Sweet hasn't won any of her 11 starts to date, but this is arguably the weakest race she has contested to date. She's the most consistent horse and least exposed in the pack and acts well enough on soft ground. She was second in a much better race than this at Worcester in October, before finishing 4th at Ludlow last time out, where it's considered the claimer jockey rode her a little too conservatively in an 8 lengths defeat.
She'll certainly get a proper ride today under Sam Twiston-Davies and at 9/4 BOG, Toot Sweet looks the most likely to succeed off the same mark as her last couple of runs. If, however, she finds one too good for her as she has done each time she has raced in he past, then it;s very possible that she'll be beaten by Flemi Two Toes, who has at least won a race this year and now races some 10lbs lower than his last win.
He ran well enough last time out over hurdles finishing 3rd of 8 at Huntingdon, but was beaten by 23 lengths as he tired late on, struggling to see out 3m2f on soft ground. The soft ground wasn't the issue there, though, it was the trip. 3 miles on soft (even heavy) ground is his trip and the return to optimum conditions allied to his lowly mark make Flemi Two Toes a real danger her at 5/1 BOG
Henry Grace is the pick here, after only going down by three parts of a length over course and distance last time out. He was beaten by a 60-rated horse that day in a much stronger contest than this. he gets to run off the same mark here today and receives some weight from most of his rivals. The first time blinkers from last time are reapplied here today and he's used to the track here, having run on it 8 times already. If all goes to plan, a debut win at 2/1 BOG is on the cards.
But he'll have to beat Tsarglas to do it. Tsarglas' trainer Stuart Williams has a good record in A/W 3yo+ handicaps and is a leading exponent in the placing of 3lb claimer jockeys. His booking of Danny Brock here today basically gives Tsarglas at least 3lbs on the field and a 4lb lower mark than his previous 2 handicap runs, which include a reasonable third at Wolverhampton. He's very lightly raced after just five runs and it is hoped that the application of a visor will make a difference. Stuart Williams horses in first time visors are 9/39 since 2007 and Tsarglas can be backed at 4/1 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt doubles as follows:
Toot Sweet / Henry Grace @ 8.75/1 (9/4 & 2/1 : Coral)
Toot Sweet / Tsarglas @ 15.25/1 (9/4 & 4/1 : BetVictor, Stan James & Hills)
Flemi Two Toes / Henry Grace @ 19.30/1 (25/4 & 9/5 : Betbright)
Flemi Two Toes / Tsarglas @ 33.35/1 (25/4 & 18/5 : Betbright)