Double Dutch, 18th July 2014
After the recent incredible run of results, I suppose it was almost inevitable that a winner-free wipeout was on the cards, as we ended up with a runner-up and a bit of a clunker in each race.
Groor was only headed inside the final furlong, as he struggled to concede masses of weight to the eventual winner. His defeat by half a length was no disgrace and was a far better result than the performance of the well-fancied British Embassy who came home last of the 7 runners, 15 lengths behind Groor.
This meant the double was already down, but we still had the later race to consider, where I was hopeful of a little redemption, but that wasn't to be. Dalgig, as expected, got out and way quickly and led, but as I feared might happen, he was yet again overhauled late on and eventually beaten into second place by the best part of 3.5 lengths.
Unfortunately for us, it wasn't Stockhill Diva that beat him, as she was a further 20 lengths adrift, beating just one rival home.
The final piece of symmetry came from the fact that both our runners-up were beaten by winners at 10/1. At 120/1, that would have been a nice double!
Thursday's results were as follows:
Groor: 2nd at 7/4 (adv 9/4)
British Embassy: last of 7 at 15/8 (adv 2/1)
Dalgig: 2nd at 11/4 (adv 11/4)
Stockhill Diva: 6th of 7 at 9/2 (adv 7/4)
Results to date:
292 winning selections from 1031 = 28.32%
97 winning bets in 269 days = 36.06%
P/L : +73.28pts (+13.57% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
This is my plan for Friday...
A nice little contest here and I suppose a few of the runners will have claims about this one, but I fancy it to be a choice between Cay Dancer and Sea The Bloom and thankfully I don't need to try to split them, as i don't see much between them.
Cay Dancer is currently priced at 5/2 BOG with Bet365 and comes here on the back of some decent performances for a 7lb claiming jockey on her last three runs. Interesting to see Richard Hughes in the saddle today, which is a positive move as this horse seeks to improve upon a third place finish at Windsor last time out. That was three weeks ago and she was only beaten by a length and the two horses ahead of her that day have both won their subsequent outings. She has more to come at this trip and looks a decent prospect today.
Sea The Bloom will, of course, want to deny her the victory by continuing her own progression that has seen her finish 4231 in four maiden attempts to date. Just like Cay Dancer, there's a significant jockey change with Ryan Moore taking the ride at the expense of Graham Lee who steered her to victory at Carlisle last time out. her breeding (by Sea The Stars) suggests that handicap company and this type of trip should be to her liking and she also stands a good chance at 9/4 BOG.
El Beau finished last season off very well, beaten by a neck in a 7.5f Class 5 maiden at Beverley, before another runner-up finish in a Class 2 Nursery handicap when beaten by less than a length by Latenightrequest, who has since gone on to win two more races and has featured at Listed level. El Beau then concluded his 2yr old season with a comfortable 3 lengths won over a mile at Ayr.
He was then off the track for 254 days (during which he was gelded) and made his reappearance four weeks ago at Haydock, finishing third and beaten by less than two lengths. The runner-up was just half a length ahead of him and has since gone on to win at Windsor. El Beau should come on gor that run and be a major player here at 3/1 BOG.
The big danger is expected to be the current 15/8 BOG favourite Elusive Guest. Kieren Fallon rode him for the first time at Windsor three weeks ago and steered him home to a maiden victory at 6/4. That win came off the back of a decent performance at Nottingham and he certainly looks to be going in the right direction. He's by Elusive City, a decent Group standard sprinter, so he shouldn't lack for pace and although purchase price doesn't often count for much, he was sold for 190,000 Euro as a yearling.
Whilst possessing natural speed from the sire, he is also related to Group 1 and Listed winners at 1m2f on his dam's side, so today's trip shouldn't be an issue. He seemed fairly well treated when given a mark of 80 for his handicap debut and with only a 2lb rise to contend with here, should go well again. I suppose the main question is whether he can give El Beau 6lbs or not.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Sea The Bloom / Elusive Guest @ 8.34/1 (9/4 & 15/8 : generally)
Sea The Bloom / El Beau @ 12/1 (9/4 & 3/1 : generally)
Cay Dancer / Elusive Guest @ 9.06/1 (5/2 & 15/8 : Bet365)
Cay Dancer / El Beau @ 13/1 (5/2 & 3/1 : Bet365)