Double Dutch, 18th March 2015
I said yesterday that I like to follow Nigel Hawke's handicappers and Midnight Legend's offspring and they combined with a comfortable 8 length win at Exeter for us to complete one half of what should have been a routine double had Harwoods Star not fluffed his start.
He reared and was slowly away conceding lots of ground, which is always hard to overcome over 5f, but he went like the wind once he got going and was only beaten by a head in the end. Unfortunately in this game, a miss is as good as a mile and so it was 2pts dropped, rather than a successful 10/1 double.
Tuesday's results were as follows:
Harwoods Star : 2nd at 6/5 (adv 7/4)
Pabusar : 3rd at 9/2 (adv 7/2)
Midnight Request : WON at 2/1 (adv 3/1)
Candide : u/p at 7/2 (adv 7/2)
Results to date:
519 winning selections from 1814 = 28.61%
163 winning bets in 470 days = 34.68%
P/L : +119.67pts (+12.74% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
I'll look to more than cover yesterday's losses via these races today...
Flying Bear looked a little rusty at the start of his last contest after a 160-day absence from he track and was very slow out of the stalls. He lost quite a bit of ground early on and as we saw yesterday, that's almost impossible to overcome in a 5f sprint. He did manage to reduce his deficit considerably and was staying on well at the end to only get beaten by 2.5 lengths.
He's eased a pound in the weights today, enabling him to drop down into 0-75 class and for a horse with decent form at Classes 2 & 3, he should be too good for most of these here and as such Flying Bear looks a decent prospect at 5/2 BOG, despite never having previously won on the A/W...
...which is something you can't say about my marginal preference Pearl Noir, who was a comfortable winner at Kempton a month ago, getting home by a good 3 lengths having made all. He's up 6lbs for that win understandably, but the booking of David Parkes claiming 7lbs looks a shrewd move by trainer Scott Dixon, who does well in these A/W handicaps in general.
Pearl Noir is a really uncomplicated sort, the stalls ope and he sets off as fast as he can for as long as he can and over 5f, he's difficult to catch and will be until raised too high in the weights and as he's technically a pound lighter than an easy win LTO, he'd be my pick here at 11/4 BOG with Betfair SB
Charlie Appleby's runners have been in great form of late (14/21 in the last two weeks!) and if he wants another winner today, then all his eggs are in Hollie Point's basket as his sole runner of the day. She has slowly but surely come to the boil, since finishing 3rd (beaten by a head) at Thirsk last July, recording a string of form reading 222221 and never beaten by far. In fact, she was first past the post in the second of those runner-up finishes, but demoted after the race.
Her last three (221) runs have been over this course and distance, so she's got a "feel" for the place and an opening handicap mark of 80 allied to Shane Gray's 3lb claim might not tax Hollie Point enough to stop her running away with this one at 6/4 BOG.
Enlace represents the Johnston / Fanning combo, who are showing signs of a return to form and this race was won by this trainer last year. Enlace made a promising start to her career, winning over 5f at Hamilton, before being a very good runner-up in a big field Class 2 contest at Newmarket (6f). Her season then began to peter out in a series of Class2 races, but that did coincide with an alarming slump in form from the whole Johnston yard in general, so it could possibly be excused.
It's now interesting to see Enlace stepped up to 7f for her A/W debut and although she's clearly unproven at both trip and surfcae, the yard isn't averse to throwing one in like this. If she has come on during her 5 months break and runs to anything like her undoubted Class 2 ability, then this Class 4 contest could be an easier way back to the winners enclosure at 11/4 BOG with Hills.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Flying Bear / Hollie Point @ 7.75/1 (5/2 & 6/4 : Bet365, Boylesports & Hills)
Flying Bear / Enlace @ 12.13/1 (5/2 & 11/4 : Hills)
Pearl Noir / Hollie Point @ 8.38/1 (11/4 & 6/4 : Betfair Sportsbook)
Pearl Noir / Enlace @ 12.13/1 (5/2 & 11/4 : Hills and Betfair SB)