Double Dutch, 18th September 2013
Did I mention yesterday that I was frustrated? Did I also say that "Handicap contests at Yarmouth invariably go to runners in the top two in the market"?
I think the answer to both questions is yes! The favourite Ghaawy came home for us in race 1 at 11/8 (we were on at 2/1), whilst Solidarity was joint 2nd favourite and came home third behind the other joint second favourite, proving the market right again.
Race 2 is where I came unstuck. I'd gone with the top two in the market, but Shrewd drifted out to 4/1, whilst favourite Thomas Hobson remained at the head of the market. Our runners finished fourth and second respectively behind the new joint favourite!
Yesterday's results were as follows:
Ghaawy : won at 2/1 (SP 11/8)
Solidarity : unplaced (3rd of 5)
Thomas Hobson : 2nd
Shrewd : unplaced
Trial to date:
10 winning selections from 49 = 20.41%
1 winning double in 13 days
P/L : -17.00pts (-68.00% ROI)
Whilst you take a look at today's races, I'm off to see exactly how well the market leaders perform at Yarmouth for future reference!
Two horses look to be head and shoulders above the rest in this six-runner, one-mile Listed contest. There'll not be much separating Wentworth and Penitent in the market and they'll probably come home first and second, but I'm unsure of the order.
Wentworth is a classy looking horse and steps up to Listed Class after winning the Betfred Mile at Goodwood, the form of which has worked out pretty well so far, producing winners and placers at both Group 3 and Listed level since and he is expected to follow suit and improve further for the step up.
Penitent is stepping down in Class to meet him here, having competed at a higher grade for the last 17 months. He's a dual Group 2 winner, he has two wins and a place from four soft ground outings, he's two from two here at Sandown and he has won six times (from 12) over the one mile trip.
Wentworth has the better form of the two, but Penitent has the superior record and conditions to suit in what promises to be a good contest between two rivals priced up at 6/4 (Coral) and 7/4 (Hills) respectively.
This is a race that presents the ideal opportunity for Psychometry to shed her maiden tag at odds of 5/4 (BetVictor). She has the benefit of previous racecourse experience and has finished second on her both her starts to date. She was narrowly beaten on her debut at Ascot in July by Lilyfire, who was unlucky not to frank that form when impeded at Sandown next time out.
Psychometry is expected to come on for her experience so far and the extra furlong here today could very well prove the key to breaking her duck after a subsequent second place finish at Newmarket last time out..
The main challenge, however, is likely to come from Dancing Sands, who was a length and a half and four places further back from Psychometry in that run four weeks ago at Newmarket.
That was Dancing Sand's debut outing and it is hoped/expected that she'll come on for the run. She's well-connected and travelled well last time out and with just normal progression, should be on the premises and the 4/1 on offer from Stan James might represent some decent value this evening.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Wentworth/ Psychometry @ 5.24 with BetVictor and/or Paddy Power
Wentworth/ Dancing Sands @ 11.90 with Stan James
Penitent/ Psychometry @ 5.76 with Bet365
Penitent/ Dancing Sands @ 13.15 with Stan James