Double Dutch, 18th September 2014
After Tuesday's narrow failure (by a nose!), we got back to winning ways yesterday to record our second successful double of the week and thanks to the use of BOG bookies, we got paid out at 15.25/1 on a double that was settled at 12/1 SP. It might not seem much difference, but it's actually just over 27% above SP and that's money we can't leave on the table.
As expected our original 9/4 jt favourites at Beverley were prominent with Multi Grain finishing three parts of a length ahead of Grand Proposal with only the intervention of a 16/1 shot denying us the forecast.
And then, just ten minutes later, Hadaatha showed why she holds group 1 entries as she saw off a decent bunch of rivals in the Listed contest. The one to watch from that race was the temperamental Albasharah who did deign to run on this occasion and had she not encountered trouble, could well have won. A winner next time in a smaller field, I think.
Our other pick Water Hole was very disappointing back in 10th of the 11 runners, a good dozen lengths or so off the pace.
Wednesday's results were as follows:
Multi Grain: won at 2/1 (adv 9/4)
Grand Proposal: 3rd at 9/4 (adv 9/4)
Hadaatha: won at 100/30 (adv 4/1)
Water Hole: 3rd at 3/1 (adv 11/4)
Results to date:
352 winning selections from 1234 = 28.53%
116 winning bets in 321 days = 36.14%
P/L : +72.18pts (+11.22% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
I'll be looking to keep the good run going with these today...
An opening mark of 77 looks quite lenient for Al Bandar on his handicap debut as this nicely progressive (3221) horse comes here off the back of a comfortable 4.5 length victory at Brighton a month ago. That probably wasn't the best of races if truth be told, but you can only beat what's in front of you and the way he quickened late on and then stayed on was impressive enough. The runner-up from that contest ran again last Friday and improved to within 1.25 lengths of the winner to finish third in a much stronger race than the Brighton contest.
When you also factor in that Richard Hughes is riding a Richard Hannon 2 yr old, that's another positive here and Al Bandar looks decent value at 5/2 BOG.
You can currently get 9/4 BOG about his main (IMO) rival Cape Xenia, who was third on debut at Salisbury five weeks ago, with the runner-up and the fourth place horse going on to win next time out, as did Cape Xenia herself. She probably hit the front too soon during that win at Leicester 17 days ago and was hanging on a bit at the finish, but the experience will have done her a world of good and she could be the latest winner for a yard who are 13/38 with their juveniles this season.
Elbereth is another handicap debutant who looks lightly treated off an opening mark of 79. She's by far the least exposed in the race after just two starts (both good runs) to date. She was only beaten by two horses when sent off at 33/1 on debut in an 11-runner race here over 1m4f at the start of July. A month later (44 days ago) she dropped back a furlong to run over this evening's course and distance and ran out a 2.25 lengths winner over 4/5fav Invasor Luck, who has subsequently won over this course and distance.
Elbereth is from the Balding yard and they seem to be running into a bit of form of late and with expected further improvement to come from this filly, allied to a nice 7lb weight for age allowance, a 2/1 BOG win looks on the cards.
The biggest threat might well come from Little Buxted, who has been performing consistently of late, if not winning. He was a good second at Sandown last time out (1m2f), where he came from well off the pace with a flying finish and was just denied by a neck staying on really strongly. It is anticipated that the extra furlong here today will be more to his liking as will the quicker ground.
The main issue with Little Buxted is that he tends to find one just too good for him and I think that will be the case here again today, but at 7/2 BOG, he's an excellent backup plan if things go awry with the favourite.
4 x 0.5pt E/W doubles as follows:
Cape Xenia / Elbereth @ 8.75/1 (9/4 & 2/1: Betfair Sportsbook)
Cape Xenia / Little Buxted @ 13.63/1 (9/4 & 7/2 : Betfair Sportsbook)
Al Bandar / Elbereth @ 9.50/1 (5/2 & 2/1 : Coral)
Al Bandar / Little Buxted @ 14.75/1 (5/2 & 7/2 : Stan James)