Double Dutch, 19th December 2013
I got that deja vu feeling yesterday as once again we found one winner from two and we were only denied by Honey of a Kitten getting nailed late on for the second time in three races. She was beaten by less than half a length this time, but beaten she was!
And this came just after King Massini defied a 6lb penalty on his second outing within 5 days to run out a very decisive 7 lengths winner at an SP of 7/4: we'd taken 9/4 earlier.
Yesterday's results were as follows:
King Massini: won at 9/4 (SP 7/4)
Big News: pulled up
Honey of a Kitten: 2nd at 2/1 (SP 6/4)
Tartan Gigha: 4th at 4/1
Results to date:
88 winning selections from 318 = 27.67%
26 winning doubles in 86 days = 30.23%
P/L : +6.97pts (+5.34% ROI)
I fancied Faith Keeper for this one anyway, but the withdrawal of Spoil Me has only increased his chances in my book. The downside of this, of course, is that he now trades around the 11/10 mark with most bookies. He absolutely coasted home last time out and is actually 12 lbs well in at the weights. And if you add today's jockey's 5lb claim, he should take this easily.
Biggest danger now is Farbreaga, a three time winner on soft ground (or worse) and was second last time out on his seasonal reappearance. The cut in the ground won't bother him and he should stay well. A clear round could see him push the favourite all the way and his current 13/2 odds (Stan James) offer some value, especially as a stand-alone E/W Bet.
Paul Nicholls' horses are going really well at present: 14 winners from 53 in the last fortnight, making 29pts at SP. He has two runners in this one, of which Tagrita at 13/8 is the most likely winner. She made all over 3 miles to land an Irish point to point at the first attempt and ran well enough over an insufficient 2m5f to finish third on her rules debut at Newbury last month.
2m 7.5f today will suit her better, although she's likely to stay further in future, but she's already shown she's got enough to land this one. Only her inexperience is likely to stand in her way.
The other Nicholls runner, V Neck, offers some real E/W value at 7/1, but the main challenge for the favourite is likely to come from Padre Tito at 11/4 with Hills. Second on both runs over hurdles so far and outpaced late on in both events, the step up in trip should suit this 5 yr old and he'll relish some softness in the ground too.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Faith Keeper / Tagrita @ 9/2 (Sky Bet, Bet365 : 11/10 & 13/8)
Faith Keeper / Padre Tito @ 13/2 (Hills, Ladbrokes : 1/1 & 11/4)
Farbreaga / Tagrita @ 71/4 (Stan James : 13/2 & 6/4)
Farbreaga / Padre Tito @ 101/4 (Stan James : 13/2 & 5/2)