Double Dutch, 19th March 2015
On another day where we were once again reminded of the small margins between success and failure, we missed a 12.13/1 double by a head, as Enlace was unable to peg back the winner of the 8.10 at Chelmsford.
This was a pity, after Flying Bear had finished like a train to overcome a really poor start where he conceded quite a bit of ground after being slow away from the stalls.
Things are still progressing nicely, though, for the DD and it pays to remember that we can't/won't win them all!
Wednesday's results were as follows:
Flying Bear : WON at 5/4 (adv 5/2)
Pearl Noir : u/p at 3/1 (adv 11/4)
Enlace : 2nd at 7/4 (adv 11/4)
Hollie Point : u/p at 6/4 (adv 6/4)
Results to date:
520 winning selections from 1818 = 28.60%
163 winning bets in 471 days = 34.61%
P/L : +117.67pts (+12.50% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Thursday's selected races are as follows...
Where It's A Long Road will seek to make it three from three since moving into handicap company after wins at Exeter and Taunton last month. Those two races have already shown that he gets this trip and that he's also very much at home with some cut in the ground and the way he has finished his last to outing suggests that he'll stay further as time goes on.
He's up 5lbs for his latest win, a rise completely negated by the booking of talented 5lb claimer Kieron Edgar who himself has been in sparkling form of late, winning 5 of his 10 races in the last four weeks and I'd fancy him to improve that tally with a win at 15/8 BOG on It's A Long Road today.
Eaton Rock could well be the biggest danger here today at what looks a fairly generous price of 13/2 BOG (could be worth an E/W tickle with Betbright) and I can only assume that his disappointing effort last time out has made him so long, as he was 6th of 10 runners and beaten by over 30 lengths at Sandown 5 weeks ago.
That run wouldn't necessarily inspire you to back him today, but prior to that run, he was second on Boxing Day at Towcester, before winning by 14 length at Uttoxeter four weeks later (8 weeks ago). Eaton Rock's only previous effort over today's course and distance saw him finish a decent third behind two subsequent winners.
It's a brave man who backs against Charlie Appleby at the moment as a 14/22 record in the past fortnight would suggest and in the 2/1 BOG Rosenbaum, he has every opportunity of landing his 15th winner of the month. Rosenbaum is better than his 4th place last time out would suggest, but there were mitigating factors for his defeat, mainly that he needed the run coming off a break of over 5 months off the track and he was quite badly hampered in the early exchanges.
Once he'd get back into race mode, Rosenbaum finished really well and stayed on strongly suggesting a step up in trip might well be the key here. he gets an extra quarter mile today and bearing in mind his trainer's excellent record with 3yr olds stepping up in trip, then this could well be yet another winner in blue.
The main challenge is expected to come the 4/1 BOG hat-trick seeking That Man of Mine, who is two from two over today's trip and was a course and distance winner here nine weeks ago. Since that win, he has also competed over this trip at Kempton where he won again, bringing him to this point of seeking a third win in handicap company at this trip.
He is, as you'd expect, up another 6lbs for his latest win, but the booking of Jamie Spencer to replace William Carson is a positive one in my eyes, given Mr Spencer's excellent past record at this venue and his overall experience will help. I'm not convinced that That Man of Mine could/should beat the favourite, but he's certainly looking the best option as a backup plan.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
It's A Long Road / Rosenbaum @ 7.63/1 (15/8 & 2/1 : Bet365, Coral & SkyBet)
It's A Long Road / That Man of Mine @ 13.38/1 (15/8 & 4/1 : BetVictor, Coral & SkyBet)
Eaton Rock / Rosenbaum @ 20/1 (6/1 & 2/1 : Bet365, Coral, SkyBet & Stan James)
Eaton Rock / That Man of Mine @ 34/1 (6/1 & 4/1 : Bet365, Coral, SkyBet & Stan James)