Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 19th May 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 19th May 2014

Well, Saturday's results went pretty much the same way as things have gone for the last couple of weeks or so and I'm beginning to feel like I'm in some strange loop.

Things started well enough as Hero De Villeneuve justified my selection, despite a drift out from my 2/1 advised odds too 11/4 at the off. he travelled and jumped well throughout and stayed on to win fairly comfortably by a couple of lengths or so.

This meant we'd a chance of a 15.88/1 double if main selection Jaja de Jau could shed her bridesmaid tag at Uttoxeter, having also drifted to 7/2 from my advised 3/1 odds.

Unfortunately she was the runner-up yet again, meaning that despite making the frame in 8 of her 14 starts to date, she's still a maiden and the DD had a winner/runner-up combo for the umpteenth time this month.

The one slight saving grace was the withdrawal of Midnight Thomas, meaning we got paid on a single at 11/4 from race 1, reducing our losses on the day to just 0.12pts.

Saturday's results were as follows:

Hero de Villeneuve:  won at 11/4 (adv 2/1)
O'Callaghan Strand: u/p at 9/2 (adv 5/1)
---------------------------------
Jaja de Jau: 2nd at 7/2 (adv 3/1)
Midnight Thomas: non-runner (adv 8/1)

Results to date:
236 winning selections from 834 = 28.30%
76 winning bets in 219 days = 34.70%

Stakes: 434.00pts
Returns: 479.82pts

P/L : +45.82pts (+10.56% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

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A new week brings new hope, starting with the...

2.50 Redcar:

Which might not prove to be as competitive as it first looks. The race is hardly littered with winners, but I think it'll turn our to be a shootout between the top three in the market, with my vote going to Kiss From A Rose at 7/2 BOG. Finishing 5th of 9 last time out and beaten by just over four lengths isn't encouraging on paper, but she missed the break badly on her return from a near six months absence. She ran well once she got going and made up plenty of ground, but the leaders were already well gone.

She has won at this trip and class, and the drop back to C6 should really help today, her trainer Rae Guest has a good record in these handicaps, particularly when dropping his horses in class, so she's the one for me.

This leaves me with Ever Yours and Storyline, both priced at 9/2 BOG and I'm going to discard the latter, because I feel this ground will be too quick for her and she has struggled to see the 5f tip out in each of her three runs to date. I'm not saying she hasn't got ability, but she might be one of those who take longer to build the strength needed to sprint.

Ever Yours, however, stays on and has been running well in defeat over in Ireland, not getting beaten by far. She drops back in trip and is a pound lighter in the weights and it is hoped that the fitting of blinkers will finally help her break her duck after a run of consistent near-misses. It's interesting to see her sent across the water on her own for this contest.

*

8.35 Windsor:

Where I like the look of Flashy Queen at 7/2 BOG for this one. She's 1531 in her last four contests, the latest being a made-all course and distance win a fortnight on her only previous visit to this track. She has won twice in nine outings, but has finished in the first three home in all bar two of her runs. Her record at the minimum trip reads 211 and although she'd up 5lbs for her last win/run, talented claiming jockey Oisin Murphy jumps on board to negate 60% of the rise. The Joseph Tuite yard is running well at present, too, with four winners from ten already this month.

The challenge is likeliest to come from Searchlight and Groundworker; Groundworker was a length and a half behind Flashy Queen here over C&D last time out and is effectively a pound better off today and I'm not entirely convinced that will be enough to reverse the placings, especially as he's up a pound himself, despite having no extra to give late on last time. I'm not keen on backing horses raised in weight after defeat to be honest.

This leaves me with Searchlight, who ran well enough last out to finish fourth within a length and a half of the winner at Nottingham a month ago. That run came after a 3-month break from racing and I'd expect him to improve for having that run. I don't often set much aside about how far horses have travelled, but Kevin Ryan has just this one runner here tonight, some 200 miles rom his yard on a day when there's racing nearer at Redcar (75 miles) and Southwell (65 miles), so maybe he has targeted this race as the ideal opportunity to get Searchlight back into the winners' enclosure at 9/2 BOG.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Kiss From A Rose / Flashy Queen @ 17.78/1 (10/3 & 10/3 : SkyBet & Stan James)
Kiss From A Rose / Searchlight @ 21.50/1 (7/2 & 4/1 : Boylesports)
Ever Yours / Flashy Queen @ 23.75/1 (9/2 & 7/2 : BetVictor, Betfred, Hills & PP)
Ever Yours / Searchlight @ 24/1 (4/1 & 4/1 : Bet365 & Boylesports)

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6 replies
  1. Rambler says:

    Some tough calls on D.D. recently Chris – hopefully a new racing week will bring a change in fortunes.

    • Chris Worrall says:

      It has been quite unbelievable the amount of isolated winners I’ve picked in the last month with little joy on the doubles front.

      Over 28% of the selections win, which means we get a winner from 56% of the races, so statistically we should be hitting a double every 3.2 days or 5 every three weeks. That would be more than enough to build profits at a reasonable rate. But, as we all know if I get 6 winners from 12 races in a week, I could have anything between 0 and 3 doubles up. At the moment it’s zero, but in the past it has gone the other way.

      As with everything, Matt and myself bring to the site, the aim is long-term profitability. I’m actually very happy with my recent selections and the process as a whole and I’m very confident we’ll start hitting the doubles again soon.

      Chris

      • Matt Bisogno says:

        Hear, hear, Chris.

        Some really good picks, and definitely the right races. It’s just that fickle finger of fate presenting the one digit salute currently. After a bad run, expect a good run; after a good run, expect a bad run. It must be that way.

        Our turn soon, no doubt. 🙂

        Matt

    • Chris Worrall says:

      Not really.
      At the odds we’re playing at, it’s not generally financially viable.
      I know that over the last few weeks where I’ve been crossbar-rattling, we’d have been better off, but once you hit a couple of doubles,they pay far more as win only.

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