Double Dutch, 19th September 2014
After a decent few days this week, yesterday was nothing to write home about at all, as we failed to land a single winner and only one of our four selections even made the frame.
The placer was Al Bandar who was beaten on the nod by a short head, which meant the later race at Kempton was rendered irrelevant.
It's probably just as well as both selections struggled, coming home in 6th and 8th places of the ten runners.
Thursday's results were as follows:
Al Bandar: 2nd at 6/4 (adv 5/2)
Cape Xenia: u/p at 6/1 (adv 9/4)
Little Buxted: u/p at 7/1 (adv 7/2)
Elbereth: u/p at 7/4 (adv 2/1)
Results to date:
352 winning selections from 1238 = 28.43%
116 winning bets in 322 days = 36.02%
P/L : +70.18pts (+10.87% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Friday's selections are as follows...
Mfiftythreedotcom might well still be a maiden after 11 attempts, but this looks tailor made for him to finally get off the mark. he always seems to be there or thereabouts, finishing second on three occasions this season so far (234252). he was a shade unlucky when encountering traffic issues at Newcastle last time out. Once he got a clear run, he was flying at the finish and only went down by three quarters of a length.
The extra furlong and the return to a mile should therefore help his cause and the fact that George Chaloner can take 3lbs off an unchanged mark of 69 from that last run is also encouraging, as are the subsequent winning runs of the two horses immediately behind him that day. Mfiftythreedotcom looks the one to beat here at 5/2 BOG.
Aran Sky is also a maiden after seven outings, but to be honest, there's not much winning form in this race at all, so being a maiden isn't a major issue! His best run came at Nottingham three starts ago when only beaten by half a length into second place, but he was a good seven lengths ahead of Rolling Dice who was a winner over this trip just three weeks ago.
Aran Sky was fourth last time out and doing all his best work at the end, he is aided by the handicapper dropping him a couple of pounds and the presence of Joey Haynes in the saddle takes another 3lb off. This drop in weight should make him very competitive here and the jockey has an excellent record riding for this yard. All of which means that 4/1 BOG might look generous later.
Marjus Quest might well have to shoulder a 7lb penalty for his win at Fontwell 12 days ago, but the way he ran last time out suggests that won't be enough to stop him rattling up a hat-trick in just over three weeks. He's 2/2 under AP McCoy, 1/1 at this level and excels in theses smaller fields. he gets the trip fine and as a triple winner on the Flat won't lack for ground speed if push comes to shove late on. He won't have it all his own way this time, but I still fancy him to shade this one at 5/2 BOG.
The big danger and 2/1 BOG race favourite is Houston Dynimo who was a winner in his last hurdles contest before having a crack at fences off a much higher mark last time out. He ran off 122 in a 2m 5.5f Listed Chase at Newton Abbot 20 days ago and was only beaten by a head, staying on. The drop back in trip, class and weight are all in his favour today as he reverts to hurdling here.
The tongue tie that was introduced two starts ago is retained and it seems to be helping him greatly. He's 1/1 here at Worcester and the trip/going are no concern today and Houston Dynimo looks a big player at this level.
4 x 0.5pt E/W doubles as follows:
Mfiftythreedotcom / Houston Dynimo @ 9.50/1 (5/2 & 2/1: Bet365, SkyBet & BetVictor)
Mfiftythreedotcom / Marjus Quest @ 11.25/1 (5/2 & 5/2 : generally)
Aran Sky / Houston Dynimo @ 14/1 (4/1 & 2/1 : generally)
Aran Sky / Marjus Quest @ 16.50/1 (4/1 & 5/2 : generally)