Double Dutch, 1st April 2014
Unfortunately we weren't able to end March in the winning manner to which we'd become accustomed, but today is another month and we have plenty of profit from last week to work with.
Monday's results were as follows:
Sergeant Mattie: 2nd at 2/1 (adv 7/4)
Count Danilo: Fell at 3/1 (adv 11/8)
Dutiful Son: won at 1/2 (adv 10/11)
Marjong: 6th at 10/1 (adv 10/1)
Results to date:
197 winning selections from 684 = 28.8%
66 winning bets in 179 days = 36.87%
P/L : +62.37pts (+17.52% ROI)
Here are Tuesday's April fools...
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
An interesting little race, but two who are clearly suited by today. Kingscombe is an obvious starting point: winner of his last three, the last two being course, distance and class successes. So we have no worries on the conditions score. He should be able to track the lead today, with No Such Number and Opus possibly keen to go on, and that should give him every chance at 5/4.
If he falls short in his bid for a four-timer, the one at a fair price that might pick up the pieces is Bivouac. A course specialist with five wins from 13 starts here, he's also won two of the three times he's raced over this one and three-quarter mile trip. He's four from seven in the grade too, and all points to a return to form if he retains the ability he had before a two year break. Alan Swinbank is capable of bringing one back and he's already had one run since the break, so could be cherry ripe this afternoon, and 6/1 is tempting.
A novices' hunter chase might not be everyone's idea of a perfect punting proposition and, in truth, it's not mine either. But, I do have a couple of rules in such company, the key one of which is to side with youth from the point fields. On that score, Certain Flight is the probable winner. He bagged a brace of points before hosing up at Huntingdon - a day I was there, and he was super impressive.
It's easy to forgive him falling short on the quantum leap into the Cheltenham Foxhunters' last time, and back in novice hunter company he looks a very sound win prospect.
Chosen Milan is the danger. Like Certain Flight, he's progressive and, though still a maiden in hunter chases, he was a head second last time at under similar conditions to today's. He gets a bundle of weight from the favourite this afternoon, including his inexperienced rider's claim, which could bring him closer to parity with that better horse.
I think the jolly will win, but if he doesn't, I think Chosen Milan will. 6/4 and 5/2 is fine, then.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Kingscombe / Certain Flight @ 4.95/1 (11/8 & 6/4 : PP)
Kingscombe / Chosen Milan @ 6.88/1 (5/4 & 5/2 : bet365)
Bivouac / Certain Flight @ 17.75/1 (13/2 & 6/4 : BetVictor)
Bivouac / Chosen Milan @ 25.25/1 (13/2 & 5/2 : BetVictor)