Double Dutch, 1st December 2013
November went out with a bit of a whimper really with the loss of two more points, but I did at least get the personal consolation of a 3.92/1 forecast in race 2, but only after I yet again found the last placed horse in a 6-runner race. That's a habit I need to shake off!
Yesterday's results were as follows:
Vicky De L'Oasis: 3rd of 6!
Free Thinking: 6th of 6!
Smashing: 2nd at 2/1
Speckled Wood: 2nd at 5/2 (SP 11/10)
(The forecast paid £4.92 here)
Results to date:
73 winning selections from 250 = 29.20%
22 winning doubles in 68 days = 32.35%
P/L : +1.50pts (+1.12% ROI)
We're back in danger of entering the red zone again, so we need something back from these chase contests:
Zarzal comes here in good nick, having won at Ludlow in a 2m chase on Monday to take his fledgling chase record to 331. He did only win by a short head that day and a 7lb penalty is sure to make life a little more difficult. He is, however, improving with each attempt over the larger obstacles and if up to his game can sneak this one at 15/8 BOG with Paddy Power
The main concern has to come from Daymar Bay, an 11/4 shot generally, making only his second start in a chase contest. He was second at Ludlow on his chase debut 17 days ago and ran on well in the closing stages to chase the winner home. He seemed to be gaining ground, but ultimately went down by just three parts of a length.
He's sure to come on for that run and he's 122 over this in his lightly raced career (just 8 starts in 4 yrs, so he's not exposed at all). He also gets a stone in weight from Zarzal and that may well be vital here.
Lodgician is coming to the end of his career and this 11 yr old veteran of 62 races might have just found one he can win before he gets put out to pasture. He doesn't often go chasing (just 4 times all told), but his jumping has always been sound and the benefit of his experience alone might well be enough to take this poor-looking contest at odds of 11/4 BOG.
The ground is ideal for him, just as it was at Cartmel back in July when he made all to win by nine lengths and if he's allowed an easy lead again, this wily old warrior might be hard to catch, especially considering that none of his rivals have any real recent form at all.
The best option of the others is likely to be Bally Lagan at 7/2 BOG, who wasn't disgraced when 5th on his chasing debut at Warwick 11 days ago. Other than a mistake 3 out which him ground and impetus, he jumped well enough that day to suggest he'll make a chaser. He is only 5 yrs old, so there's plenty of scope for improvement: today would be a good time to show it!
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Daymar Bay / Lodgician @ 10.80 with BetVictor
Daymar Bay / Bally Lagan @ 12.96 with BetVictor & Paddy Power
Zarzal / Lodgician @ 14.06 with Bet365, BetVictor and William Hill
Zarzal / Bally Lagan @ 16.88 with Bet365 & BetVictor