Double Dutch, 1st February 2014
We took the first and last races fronm Lingfield's card yesterday and the favourite duly obliged in both to give us a 7.25/1 double, after wins from Mr David (7/4) and Swift Blade, who came home at our advised 2/1.
Yesterday's results were as follows:
Mr David: won at 7/4 (adv 5/4)
Kuanyao: 6th at 5/1 (adv 5/1)
Swift Blade: won at 2/1 (adv 2/1)
Obboorr: 4th at 9/4 (adv 4/1)
Results to date:
133 winning selections from 475 = 28.00%
43 winning doubles in 127 days = 33.86%
P/L : +5.45pts (+2.16% ROI)
Saturday's are generally ultra competitive and with lots of mud about, it'll be tough, but I think we've a good chance of hitting our third consecutive double with these:
Despite the best efforts and not inconsiderable claims of Colin Tizzard's Grand Vision, this really should boil down to a shootout between Saphir du Rheu and Whisper. Saphir du Rheu is rated far better than Whisper, but as such will have to concede 11lbs to Whisper, which now makes the latter a good 21lbs better off than when they last met, where the former prevailed by 9 lengths.
The weights will go a long way to deciding the winner, as will their ability to cope with conditions. I think Saphir du Rheu is the better horse and should take this at 9/4 BOG (BetVictor & Stan James), but Whisper is three from three here at Ffos Las with two C&D victories and his record of three wins and a place from five efforts on heavy ground mean there'll be very little in it.
The tightness of the decision makes Whisper an ideal selection at a similar 9/4 BOG price. The bookies can't separate them, neither can I! I just feel one of them will take it and the reverse forecast won't pay much, but it should still pay.
No Planning is 1331 here at Wetherby and has a decent record in soft/heavy ground. This might turn out to be a real test of stamina, but this one stays all day and gets at least another half mile when required. That said, he's no slouch either, having won three times over a trip a half mile shorter. He's very versatile and comes here hoping to net trainer Sue Smith her fourth win in six years from this race. 5/2 BOG is the price generally available about No Planning.
McMurrough is another horse who goes really well on heavy ground and over this trip, but I just think this race might be one step too far, asking him to record a career-best performance to take it on at a mark 10lbs higher than his run here three weeks ago.
This, therefore leads me to Ice n Easy who was in great form last spring (4211 in chases around this kind of trip) before a lay off of some nine months. He would have been entitled to have needed a run when reappearing at Kempton three weeks ago on his first outing for new trainer Charlie Longsdon. He didn't, however, look like he was rusty as he made a valiant effort to overcome a three lengths deficit on the run in, just failing by half a length.
That race should stand him in good stead today and Ice n Easy's my alternate at a generally available 2/1 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Saphir du Rheu / Ice n Easy @ 8.75/1 (9/4 & 2/1 Stan James, Bet365 & BetVictor)
Saphir du Rheu / No Planning @ 10.38/1 (9/4 & 5/2 Stan James, Bet365 & BetVictor)
Whisper / Ice n Easy @ 8.75/1 (9/4 & 2/1 Stan James, Bet365 & BetVictor)
Whisper / No Planning @ 10.38/1 (9/4 & 5/2 Stan James, Bet365 & BetVictor)