Double Dutch, 1st January 2014
We closed out 2013 with another winning day, but a dead heat in race 2 dramatically reduced our profits.
The day started well with a 1-2 finish at Uttoxeter with our selections finishing within half a length of each other with the next horse over 20 lengths adrift. Forecast backers were treated to a 6.8/1 return from this one.
In race 2, Mrs Jordan was well backed from our 5/4 into 5/6 at the off, but she didn't have enough left late on and could only manage third place. Tickity Bleue, however, travelled strongly until getting caught on the line by a flying finish from Molly's A Diva. Our selection did just enough to hold on for a share of a lead for a dead heat.
This meant a return of 3.05pts as opposed to the 6.1pts expected, but it's still a profit of 52.5% on the day.
Yesterday's results were as follows:
Tresor de Bontee: won at 9/4 BOG (adv 85/40)
Lord of House: 2nd at 3/1 adv (SP 5/2)
(The forecast paid £7.80 here)
Tickity Bleue: Dead Heat 1st at 11/4 BOG (adv 9/4)
Mrs Jordan: 3rd at 5/4 adv (SP 5/6)
Results to date:
105 winning selections from 356 = 29.49%
33 winning doubles in 96 days = 34.38%
P/L : +15.45pts (+8.13% ROI)
We kick off the New Year in a position of relative health and hope to press on with these:
Which I expect to turn out to be a match between Federici and Billybuster.
Federici looks a progressive sort and was a winner over 2m2f on heavy ground three days ago. Provided this race doesn't come too soon for him, there's every chance he can go in again at odds of around 11/8. He drops back in trip to the minimum 2m, which should help to reduce the impact of the 6lb penalty shouldered for Sunday's win.
Billybuster, however, is a real threat and probably offers a little more value at 5/2. He's 2113 over hurdles this winter campaign, as he followed up a course and distance win in October with another good victory at Wexford 16 days later. He ran creditably in defeat, when 3rd last time out, 18 days ago at Fairyhouse. He was beaten by 6 lengths that day, with Luke's Benefit (Yesterday's SotD winner!) taking the spoils.
Just four go to post for this one and I'm immediately going to discount the 14/1 rank outsider Cara Court, leaving me the task of omitting one of the more fancied runners.
The one I'm avoiding is the 7/4 favourtie Desert Lord, mainly because the price offers no real value for a horse that seems to finish weakly. The ground is going to be testing today and we need to be on one that stays on, rather than folding tamely. There's no doubting his ability, but he's not for me today.
This leaves Bocamix and Forestside as our selections. Bet365 offer 3/1 BOG about Bocamix and he's be my preferred option, despite being 0/9 over fences. He ahs been running very well recently, finishing 2nd at Sedgefield in better company than this and he looked set for another good run when unseating his rider ast time out. Conditions should suit him in a race that shouldn't take much winning.
Forestside is another chase maiden (0/17!), but has been getting closer of late with finishes of 332 in hs last three efforts. He was a decent second over course and distance a fortnight ago and he now drops to a career-low mark, making him quite dangerous to our selection. Forestside can be backed at 9/4 with Stan James.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Federici / Forestside @ 6.72/1 (Stan James 11/8 & 9/4)
Federici / Bocamix @ 17/2 (Bet365 11/8 & 3/1)
Billybuster / Forestside @ 19/2 (Bet Internet 5/2 & 2/1)
Billybuster / Bocamix @ 13/1 (Bet365 5/2 & 3/1)