Double Dutch, 1st January 2016
After what has been a really difficult time of it for Double Dutch, it was good to close 2015 with two winning days from three, as we followed up Tuesday's long-awaited success with a 15.88/1 return yesterday.
The McManus horse, Sir Abbot, flopped again at Punchestown and failed to complete the contest, but thankfully Rolling Rocket was up for the fight and despite losing the lead after a mistake at the last, rallied again to stay on for a win by three parts of a length.
That gave us an 11/4 winner to take to the Warwick race, which started immediately after our first had ended, so we didn't have long to await our fate!
And my faith on a 20-race maiden was justified as Solidago beat fellow 3/1 jt fav Rebekah Rabbit by three and a half lengths to allow us to end the year on a high.
The icing on the cake for patient followers of this column was the 13/1 return from the Exacta, making this DD's best day for some time.
Thursday's results were as follows:
Rolling Rocket : WON at 11/4 (adv 11/4)
Sir Abbot : PU at 7/2 (adv 9/4)
Solidago : WON at 3/1 (adv 7/2)
Rebekah Rabbit : 2nd at 3/1 (adv 9/4)
The Exacta paid £14.00 to a £1.00 stake here
Results to date:
768 winning selections from 2750 = 27.93%
240 winning bets in 712 days = 33.71%
P/L : +82.04pts (+5.77% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
If you bet based on recent form figures, it's highly likely you'll bypass this race today, but I feel that Buckboru is a better horse than a 0/9 record over hurdles would suggest. She's always given the impression that she was built more for stamina than speed and the majority of her runs have either been over inadequately short trips, on ground too quick for him or a combination of the two.
Therefore, 2m7f on heavy ground should be right up her street and she's already made the frame twice here at Exeter in 5 appearances and has a 50% place strike rate (3/6) on heavy ground, suggesting that today could very well be the day for Buckboru at 11/4 BOG, especially with her being 7lbs better off from his last run and the first time fitting of cheekpieces.
The one she'll have most to worry about is likely to be fellow 11/4 BOG chance Precious Ground, who despite being pretty well beaten into third place last time out, proved he gets the trip on heavy ground at Chepstow. He was also third here at Exeter two starts ago, despite coming off a break of 240 days, finishing 8 lengths behind a runner-up who has gone on to win next time out.
Precious Ground was 8 lengths clear of Buckboru that day and although the latter is now better off at the weights, they'll probably still be very closely matched, which does somewhat suggest an all or nothing return from the contest for us!
When I was going through the cards looking for possible bets for the Stat of the Day and Stat Picks services, I liked the look of both Roxyfet and Rear Admiral, but couldn't select either of them, as they're both in the same race! The beauty of DD, of course, is that I can have both here.
Roxyfet has won two of his last four outings, including a win by 8 lengths on heavy ground at Sedgefield last time out (Boxing Day). He's obviously penalised for that win, but in receipt of weight all around and having shown a liking for the mud in the past, has an obvious clear chance of doubling up here at 5/2 BOG.
Rear Admiral is also priced up at 5/2 BOG and this lightly raced 10 yr old has been solidly reliable this year over fences after returning to the bigger obstacles from a period spent hurdling. He actually made his chasing bow on Boxing Day 2012, when a runner-up at Market Rasen, but didn't see another fence until January 2015, when 5th at Doncaster.
Since then, he finished 222, before a 7 month break after which he was once again a runner-up, but only beaten by half a length at Sedgefield, probably needing the run. He benefited from the pipe-opener and eventually broke his chasing duck next/last time out at Musselburgh. Rear Admiral always seems to run well and as such is of interest again today.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows...
Buckboru / Roxyfet @ 12.13/1 (11/4 & 5/2 : generally)
Buckboru / Rear Admiral @ 12.13/1 (11/4 & 5/2 : generally)
Precious Ground / Roxyfet @ 12.13/1 (11/4 & 5/2 : generally)
Precious Ground / Rear Admiral @ 12.13/1 (11/4 & 5/2 : generally)