Double Dutch, 1st November 2014
We closed out October with a quirky enough double on the Santa Anita dirt, as Goldencents and Untapable both justified favouritism, and both did it at much bigger UK odds than their American counterparts. Maybe it's a tack we should look at again. But then, maybe not...
Into November we go, and a predominantly jump racing focus will be the order of the day as we bid to continue to re-establish the profit momentum of a service that can probably best be described as streaky.
Friday's results were as follows:
Goldencents: won at 4/6 (adv 5/4)
Fed Biz: 7th at 7/1 (adv 11/2)
Untapable: won at (adv 10/3)
Iotapa: 3rd at 7/1 (adv 10/1)
Results to date:
392 winning selections from 1372 = 28.57%
126 winning bets in 357 days = 35.29%
P/L : +46.2pts (+6.48% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
We'll take in two races in the space of five minutes in the quest for a Saturday double, starting with the...
Not normally my sort of race, for this column at least, but there are good reasons to be with a pair of participants, one of which is a price. The favourite is Sign Of A Victory, a horse that likes winning, as a record of four wins and a second in his last six runs attests. The second was last time, and it was as unlucky as you'll see, with a loose horse badly impeding him on the run-in when he looked sure to win (laid in running at 1.14).
The trip and ground are spot on and, though he's stepping up in class - and into a handicap for the first time - he's earned a crack at it, and looks well situated to again go close.
But the one I like at a price is Mountain King. He was fourth in a good Cheltenham handicap hurdle (are there any bad ones there?), and the form is working out well. Indeed, the four subsequent runners have netted two wins and two places between them. A crude line through Vibrato Valtat gives Mountain King every chance with Sign Of A Victory, making 11/2 quite tempting about this handily ridden course and distance winner.
I've backed Carlingford Lough for small money to win the Gold Cup next March, but I don't expect him to be ready to win this. At least, I hope he isn't, as I'm taking the other pair with obvious chances, Don Cossack and Wonderful Charm, to claim the major prize.
Don Cossack is very good on his day, as he showed when easily winning a Grade 3 chase on his seasonal bow. True, he was a long way behind Carlingford Lough on his final start last term, but he has the fitness edge this time, and I expect that to be material now that he may be getting his act together over fences.
Wonderful Charm travels over from the Somerset yard of Paul Nicholls, who has won this race the past SIX years! Nicholls says Wonderful Charm wants a flat track and yielding ground or quicker, so things look spot on in the trainer's bid for a remarkable seven-timer, and our own bid for a return for the sixth day in a row.
4 x 0.5pt doubles as follows:
Sign Of A Victory / Don Cossack @ 6.56/1 (7/4 & 7/4: Skybet)
Sign Of A Victory / Wonderful Charm @ 5.88/1 (7/4 & 6/4: Hills)
Mountain King / Don Cossack @ 15.25/1 (11/2 & 6/4: Hills)
Mountain King / Wonderful Charm @ 16.03/1 (11/2 & 13/8: Hills)