Double Dutch, 20th August 2014
Back to winning ways on Tuesday with a 9.5/1 double despite a 10p Rule 4 deduction in race 1.
As expected Ziggy's Secret continued her improvement to win by a length and a quarter at Yarmouth and seeming to still have something in reserve. We'd backed her after the withdrawal of the original favourite, so no deductions from our value bet at 11/4 (SP was 2/1).
Our other selection at Yarmouth, Red Paladin, was heavily backed in from our 100/30 to become the 13/8 favourite at the off, but he failed to shine, weakening late on to finish 3.5 lengths adrift.
All of which meant we headed to Leicester still in with a shout of he double and warm (sent off at evens) favourite Yaakooum put in a gutsy battling display to win by the best part of two lengths. Our joy was only slightly tempered by the 10p deduction reducing a 10.25/1 double down to 9.5/1. This, however, was once again far better than backing at SP, where the double came in at 5/1.
SP paid almost half of what we got and that's money you shouldn't be leaving on the table.
Tuesday's results were as follows:
Ziggy's Secret: won at 2/1 (adv 11/4)
Red Paladin: u/p at 13/8 (adv 100/30)
Yaakooum: won at evens (adv 9/5 after R4)
Law Keeper: 3rd at 9/4 (adv 9/4 after R4)
Results to date:
328 winning selections from 1138 = 28.82%
109 winning bets in 297 days = 36.70%
P/L : +80.19pts (+13.45% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
I'm hoping to continue my return to form with two more winners today from these selections...
15/8 BOG favourite Panther Patrol comes here on the crest of a wave, having won his last three races on the bounce. All three were over today's 6f trip with the middle race of that trip coming over today's course and distance. That run was probably the best of the three too, with him making all to comfortably score by three lengths.
I think he's probably better than a 75-rated horse on Polytrack, so he could well have something in hand again today as he seeks to improve on a record at Lingfield that reads as two wins and two places from just six attempts (2 from 5 over C&D).
The likeliest challenger should be Marmalady, who was very progressive last season with a run of form reading 2111. She has been running well in defeat so far this season, placing twice in her three starts and she found 5f too sharp for her last time out. She's had a bit of a rest since then (12 weeks) and if she's race-ready after the absence, I'm sure the step back up to 6f will suit her more.
I think that she'd normally have a very good chance of winning this without the presence of Panther Patrol, so if the favourite doesn't cope with the rise in weight, she could be the beneficiary at 11/4 BOG.
This one should develop into a straight match between Souville and Taquka with very little to separate them on paper, at least!
Souville won over course and distance on her final outing as a 2 yr old. She was only beaten by a neck over this trip at Nottingham on her seasonal reappearance despite a break of 190 days. She then stepped up to Class 4 and won relatively comfortably at Goodwood, before stepping up in class again for her latest run at Newmarket.
Things didn't quite go to plan for her that day and she was beaten by 6.5 lengths back in 6th of 10 runners. I can overlook that as the race was on too quick a surface for her and the extra class was a step too far. Dropping back down to this level on a track where she has performed well in the past looks a good move to get her back on form and if running her own race, has a really good shout at 2/1 BOG.
She might, however, fall foul of Taquka's A/W ability tonight. This horse is a bit of an enigma, having failed to win any of his eight starts on turf, but he has a form line of 2121 on the A/W with a course and distance win here under his belt. That win came last time out a fortnight ago as he landed a bot of a shock at 33/1, but actually won far more comfortably than the 0.75 lengths official margin would seem.
He had plenty in hand that day and his jockey's claim will more than compensate for a rise in weights today, making Taquka a real contender for the follow-up at odds of 5/2 BOG with Hills
4 x 0.5pt E/W doubles as follows:
Panther Patrol / Souville @ 7.63/1 (15/8 & 2/1 : Bet365)
Panther Patrol / Taquka @ 8.34/1 (15/8 & 9/4 : Bet365)
Marmalady / Souville @ 10.25/1 (11/4 & 2/1 : Bet365, Paddy P & BetFred)
Marmalady / Taquka @ 12.13/1 (11/4 & 5/2 : Hills)