Double Dutch, 20th December 2013
You just couldn't script what happened yesterday. Two horses fell at the eighth fence in our first race. They were nowhere near each other, so the falls weren't related, but Sod's Law was in operation and it was both of our selections hitting the deck within fractions of a second.
Sometimes, you just know it's not your day, I suppose!
I fared better in the second race, where I successfully nominated the 13/8 winner Tagrita (SP 11/8) as well as highlighting the E/W potential of the other Paul Nicholls runner V Neck who was 2nd at advised odds of 7/1. Not official bets as such, but I made a reasonable personal profit from those two runners, though I'd be a liar if I said I'd backed the 13.3/1 exacta!
Yesterday's results were as follows:
Faith Keeper: fell
Tagrita: won at 13/8 (SP 11/8)
Padre Tito: 5th at 11/4 (SP 5/2)
Results to date:
89 winning selections from 322 = 27.64%
26 winning doubles in 87 days = 29.89%
P/L : +4.97pts (+2.89% ROI)
The profit level and the strike rate have both dropped to an unsatisfactory level (to me, anyway!) and I'm hoping/expecting to rectify that today with the following:
Two wins in France and a Kempton victory on his stable debut completed a fragmented hat-trick for the promising Volnay de Thaix and I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't go off at odds on. He currently trades around the 11/10 mark and looks to have a great chance here.
His yard says he's still maturing and they think he'll develop into a decent sort and I think he'll be there or thereabouts again today, but I fancy Irving to overturn the odds here.
Irving was a decent enough performer in Germany at 1m6f, so pace between obstacles should never be an issue and he achieved back to back wins in his two UK starts for Paul Nicholls last month, including a win over course and distance here last time out. The Ditcheat team is absolutely flying at the moment and a price of 5/2 good offers good value to upset the apple cart here.
As above, I feel the favourite here has a good chance of winning, but I'm going to take this one on as well. Fortinbrass is the likely favourite and is generally available at 2/1 (BetVictor offer slightly more at 85/40) and is always competitive at this level. He's a triple winner at this trip and won a similar contest two starts ago, before struggling up in trip and class in a Wolverhampton handicap a month ago.
He drops back to 6f and Class 6 here and is a dangerous contender off a mark of 78, when he has already won a Class 4 race off 81.
However, I'm going taking a chance on the fitness of Greenhead High, who returns to the track after a break of 31 weeks. If he picks up where he left off in the spring, he could prove to be a nice bet at 9/4. Despite rising in the weights in Feb/march, he rounded off his spring campaign with finishes of 111153228, showing a good level of consistency.
More telling is the fact that he has won his last three efforts on A/W surfaces, all over today's trip and two over course and distance. A Class 5 winner at Wolverhampton on his last A/W run now returns dropping in class and just shades it for me, if fit enough.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Volnay de Thaix / Fortinbrass @ 5.3/1 (Coral : 11/10 & 2/1)
Volnay de Thaix / Greenhead High @ 5.83/1 (Coral, Sky Bet, Stan James : 11/10 & 9/4)
Irving / Fortinbrass @ 9.94/1 (BetVictor : 5/2 & 85/40)
Irving / Greenhead High @ 10.38/1 (BetVictor : 5/2 & 9/4)
P.S. I'm now taking a couple of days off for a long weekend and I'll be back with you for Boxing Day. Matt will, of course, look after you in my absence and I'd like to wish you all a very Happy Christmas.
All the best,