Double Dutch, 20th November 2013
It was a happy return for the Double Dutch yesterday as both Spirit Oscar and Persian Herald were victorious, combining to give us a quick-fire 6/1 double at advised odds.
Spirit Oscar won by just over three lengths after making all and was returned at the same even money odds that we had advised with out 11/4 shot Lady Boru finishing 3rd at a slightly longer SP of 3/1. Although she was third, she was never really likely to win, finishing some 46 lengths off the pace after weakening late on.
In race 2, we got the 1-2 with Persian Herald driven clear on the run-in to beat the favourite Watt Broderick by a couple of lengths. Our winner was backed in from 5/2 to 2/1 and at the risk of repeating myself, was another reminder to take the early BOG prices.
Yesterday's results were as follows:
Spirit Oscar: won at Evens
Lady Boru: 3rd at 3/1
Persian Herald: won at 5/2 (SP 2/1)
Watt Broderick: 2nd at 7/4
(The Exacta paid £6.80 here.)
Results to date:
63 winning selections from 207 = 30.43%
19 winning doubles in 57 days = 33.33%
P/L : +5.43pts (+4.85% ROI)
A 4.85% return on stakes invested isn't world-beating, but the numbers are at least going in the right direction and I'm confident of adding to the tally with these today...
This looks to be a straight forward battle between Intense Feeling (13/8 with Coral & SkyBet) and One Penny Piece (15/8 with Coral & SkyBet). the pair are clear of the rest of the field official ratings, recent form and they head the market here.
Both are dropped in class for this one and have been running in much better company than this contest. In fairness, there's not that much to choose between the pair and I don't really have a stand out pick if I'm honest. The criteria here is to merely find the winner and I can't see any of the other runners taking this one!
If I had to pick one of the two, I'd probably plump with Intense Feeling to take advantage of One Penny Piece's 3 month break.
This contest seems to centre around the three horses at the top of the market and when the 4th favourite is priced at 8/1, then you can see that the bookies think so too. There are cases to be made for all three of Molly's A Diva, Madame De Guise and Keshi Pearl.
Molly's A Diva (11/4 with Stan James) has won three of her four starts to date, including a listed bumper at Sandown in March. She was disappointing in another Listed bumper at Aintree a month later, but looks the type who will readily adapt to hurdling. I'd expect her to relish the step up in distance too, as she's a sister to 2m2f-2m5f hurdle/chase winner Max Bygraves and half-sister to 2m-2m4f hurdle/chase winner Smokey George.
Madame De Guise (7/2 with Coral & Stan James) comes here with the benefit of already having had a crack at hurdling, when 4th of 10 on her racing debut 25 days ago. She was beaten by Purple Bay that day, who has since won again, albeit at fairly prohibitive odds of 1/3! She holds the best form of those with any hurdling experience in this race too.
And finally, Keshi Pearl, a 4/1 shot with Bet365. She finished ahead of Molly's A Diva at Aintree in April, before going on to win a heavy-ground bumper at Uttoxeter and the runner-up that day has since gone on to win a hurdle contest of similar quality to today. Keshi Pearl's breeding suggests she'll be happier with a longer trip than her bumper win, as she is a half-sister to useful 2m-3m1f hurdle/chase winner Pearlysteps and 2m4f-2m6f hurdle winner Pearly Star.
The one I'm going to discard is the Madame De Guise, for although she has hurdling experience, it wasn't a great performance in a poor looking race and I'm not entirely convinced that she'll get the extra 4.5 furlongs here today, whereas the breeding of both Molly's A Diva and Keshi Pearl suggest that this will play to their strengths. Time will tell, I suppose!
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Intense Feeling / Molly's A Diva @ 9.84 with Stan James (10.5 non-BOG from SportingBet)
Intense Feeling / Keshi Pearl @ 12.50 with Bet365
One Penny Piece / Molly's A Diva @ 10.31 with BetVictor (12.00 with SportingBet)
One Penny Piece / Keshi Pearl @ 13.12 with Bet365 (13.50 with SportingBet)