Double Dutch, 20th September 2014
Close, but no cigar was the outcome from Friday, I'm afraid. I called the Worcester race spot on by declaring that I expected Marjus Quest to just shade it ahead of Houston Dynimo and he did by just a neck holding on. There was the added bonus of a small 5.85/1 forecast, but the day has to declared a losing one overall.
And that's because, yet again Mfiftythreedotcom found one just too good and had to settle for a two length defeat into second place with Aran Sky a further half length and two places back.
Friday's results were as follows:
Mfiftythreedotcom: 2nd at 15/8 (adv 5/2)
Aran Sky: u/p at 4/1 (adv 4/1)
Marjus Quest: won at 9/4 (adv 5/2)
Houston Dynimo: 2nd at 2/1 (adv 2/1)
The forecast paid £6.85 here
Results to date:
353 winning selections from 1242 = 28.42%
116 winning bets in 323 days = 35.91%
P/L : +68.18pts (+10.53% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Saturday's selections are as follows...
Kieren Fallon won this race for Saeed bin Suroor aboard Sharestan last year and the team attempt to repeat the feat with Sky Hunter today. The yard has won this race three times in five years, so they clearly target it and with Sky Hunter being their chosen runner, they obviously fancy his chances, despite his UK record not being great so far. He was 4th of 5 in a Group 3 at sandown in April and then 6th of 7 in a Listed race at Newbury three weeks later, But he was only beaten by less than five lengths in a fairly tight finish and has't raced in the four months since then.
He has now been gelded and will wear a hood and if either/both of these spark a return to anything like his French form, then he'll be tough to beat. His record in France read 11131 with the only defeat coming in the Group 1 French Derby, beaten by two lengths by Intello. Sky Hunter rounded off his French runs with a win at Listed Class and if on song can do the same here at 15/8 BOG (PP).
There is, however, a distinct possibility that Sennockian Star could ruin those plans by landing this one today. He hasn't been disgraced in defeat in his last two outings, which were both at this Listed level, but on both occasions he failed to stay the trip. The drop back to 10 furlongs should surely suit him much better. He's a previous course winner and acts on all ground conditions. He has three wins at this trip and goes well in small fields.
Sennockian Star likes to dictate affairs and if allowed an easy lead will prove difficult to overhaul. That could very well be the case and if so, his 100/30 BOG odds will look very attractive.
BetVictor are offering 5/2 BOG about Running Reef here and that looks a tad generous to me. He was an easy 5 lengths winner on Monday up at Musselburgh and although he's penalised 6lbs for that win, firstly I don't think that's enough to stop and secondly he was set to be dropped 2lbs on Tuesday anyway, so his penalty for a runaway victory is effectively just 4lbs. He's a former course and distance winner and providing Monday didn't take too much out of him (and it didn't seem to!), then I fancy him to go in again.
Of the rest, I'd have to go with Showtime Star, who does at least have a modicum of decent recent form unlike many of his rivals.He has one win and two runner-up finishes to his name from his last five contests and won at Hamilton last time out. He's drawn alongside Running Reef and they might just tow each other along for a 1-2 finish (I hope so!).
He gets 7f well enough, has been a runner-up twice from three starts here at Catterick. With just seven runs to his name, he's neither exposed nor fully developed and should still have some progression to make and at 9/2 BOG with BetVictor looks an appealing Plan B.
4 x 0.5pt E/W doubles as follows:
Sky Hunter / Running Reef @ 9.06/1 (15/8 & 5/2 : Betfair Sportsbook)
Sky Hunter / Showtime Star @ 14.13/1 (7/4 & 9/2 : BetVictor)
Sennockian Star / Running Reef @ 13/1 (3/1 & 5/2 : Betfair Sportsbook)
Sennockian Star / Showtime Star @ 19.63/1 (11/4 & 9/2 : BetVictor)