Double Dutch, 21st December 2013
Back to winning ways for Chris yesterday, as he signed off for Chrimbo with a 10.4375/1 double, courtesy of Irving and Fortinbrass
Yesterday's results were as follows:
Irving: 1st 11/4
Volnay de Thaix: 2nd 4/5
Fortinbrass: 1st 85/40
Greenhead High: 4th 2/1
Results to date:
91 winning selections from 324 = 28.09%
27 winning doubles in 88 days = 30.68%
P/L : +5.83pts (+3.35% ROI)
Today's pair of races are:
This novices' chase looks a three horse race between Valco de Touzaine, Ahyaknowyerself, and Mwaleshi. I'm leaving the middle one out because, though he's highly rated over hurdles he's not impressed with his jumping so far, and he also has a moderate win strike rate.
Against that, Valco De Touzaine comes here on a hat-trick and is easily the highest rated chaser in the field (Ahyaknowyerself not yet got a mark). His jumping has been generally sound, bar a couple of late scares last time, and the soft ground should be no issue to him. He has a favourite's chance at a best price of 13/8.
Mwaleshi could be the fly in the jolly-backer's ointment here, though. Sue Smith's charge was a 143-rated hurdler himself, and lost little in defeat to the useful Eduard and will relish the juice in the ground. 9/2 generally is more appealing than 2/1 generally (and 9/4 best) about Ahyaknowyerself, though that one has his chance with a clear round.
We're staying at Haydock for the very next race, the Listed mares' novice hurdle over two and a half miles. This race has a solid favourite, and a solid pace angle, and they're my two against the field.
The favourite, Carole's Spirit, ran second in a heavy ground Listed bumper last backend, and comes here on the hat-trick over hurdles. She's stepping up a fair rung in grade, but has earned that, and showed with NH Flat form that she can be competitive at this level. The easy ground will also be no issue to her, and she's 7/4 with most firms, as I write.
Against her is the adorable mare, As I Am, who - a bit like Forrest Gump - just keeps on running. She bowls along on the lead, and then she quickens away. Her form at this trip is a rather bombproof 11111, and she won a Listed novices' hurdle last time, albeit over a shorter trip. She's a whopping 4/1 with Betfred, and that looks too big to my eye. She's nearer 10/3 or 7/2 in most places.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Valco De Touzaine/ Carole's Spirit @ 6.86/1 (BetVictor : 13/8 & 2/1)
Valco De Touzaine / As I Am @ 12.75/1 (Stan James : 7/4 & 4/1)
Mwaleshi/ Carole's Spirit @ 15.5/1 (BetVictor : 9/2 & 2/1)
Mwaleshi / As I Am @ 26.5/1 (Betfred : 9/2 & 4/1)