Double Dutch, 21st February 2014
Sod's Law reared its ugly head again yesterday to deny us what would have been a very pleasant 14.8/1 double after Mosspark denied a drift out 9/2 to still score by five lengths.
This set us up nicely for race 2, where Up And Go was well fancied (SP of 5/4 from our 15/8), but he failed to get home, he was headed late on and went down by a short head.
Yet, as Sod's law decrees, the horse who beat us was the one I'd discarded in the final analysis. C'est la vie, as our Gallic friends might shrug...
Yesterday's results were as follows:
Mosspark: won at 9/2 (adv 3/1)
Carraig Mor: u/p at 4/6 (adv 11/10)
Up And Go: 2nd at 5/4 (adv 15/8)
Rockawango: PU at 9/2 (adv 7/2)
Results to date:
158 winning selections from 554 = 28.52%
53 winning bets in 147 days = 36.05%
P/L : +33.25pts (+11.47% ROI)
We're still in a healthy position and I'm hoping of boosting the bank with these:
This looks like the ideal Double Dutch race if I can call it right. Only a few real contenders in a field lacking in depth/quality, yet with reasonable odds about the ones I like.
My pick is Devon Drum for this one and the 9/4 BOG currently on offer looks decent value. He was a useful runner in bumpers (won over 12.5f on debut) and was a decent second on his only A/W run to date. He was only beaten by three parts of a length over this trip at Kempton and the third placed horse (8 lengths back) went on to win next time out.
No flat race since then (19 weeks ago), but he has been kept sharp/fit by two hurdles efforts over the winter and now comes here after a 12 weeks rest. Trainer Paul Webber does well with horses coming off a break and Devon Drum is entitled to improve on his second A/W outing.
The form pick and main rival is the 2/1 BOG favourite Song And Dance Man, who makes his debut for Gary Moore after three progressive finishes (422) for William Haggas last year. He had been running over 8-10 furlongs, whilst his breeding suggests today's mile and a half will suit him better and my main concerns centre around the use of headgear so early in his career and his 145 day absence from the track, hence he's my alternate today.
Astigos was second at Haydock six days ago in a Pertemps qualifier (3m, heavy ground) and despite going down by 1.5 lengths, he was over 30 lengths clear of the rest of the field. He's 8lbs well in here today (due a rise in weights) and drops down considerably in class for this race. providing this doesn't come too soon after last Saturday's slog, I'd suggest he only has to get round to win and the defection of Thomas Junior whilst I was typing should make his task even easier.
Unfortunately that 11.30am withdrawal has reduced the price on Astigos to 5/4 BOG, but that might still be decent value, for he might well end up odds on.
Thomas Junior was my backup plan and there's not a lot to recommend from the rest of the pack here. However, if pushed, I'd take a punt on Storm Alert at 11/2 BOG to be the nearest challenger. He's a consistent if not stellar performer at this level and is 4123 here at Exeter. He's 123 over C&D (12 over C&D on heavy) and would have been a reasonable each way bet befoe the defection of Thomas Junior. I can't really see him winning if Astigos stays on his feet, but you never know what might happen...
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Song And Dance Man / Astigos @ 5.60/1 (2/1 & 6/5 : PP & SkyBet)
Song And Dance Man / Storm Alert @ 18.50/1 (2/1 & 11/2 : Stan James)
Devon Drum / Astigos @ 6.31/1 (9/4 & 5/4 : Hills & BetVictor)
Devon Drum / Storm Alert @ 18.50/1 (9/4 & 5/1 : BetFred & Hills)