Double Dutch, 21st November 2013
We had another good day yesterday as we managed to overturn the favourites in both of our selected races to land ourselves a nice 12.75/1 double at BOG prices (11.37/1 at SP and the extra money is better off in your pocket than theirs!)
One Penny Piece was a 7/4 shot with Bet365 and was duly returned the winner at that same price, she quickened well at the furlong pole and ran on strongly to win by just over a length, which set us up nicely for our second contest...
...where Keshi Pearl pretty much destroyed the field. She was patiently ridden by Richard Johnson, but when she was asked to go and win the race, she accelerated well and left the pack behind. She made a couple of minor jumping errors at the last two hurdles (too close at the 2nd last and long at the last), but was a comfortable 9 lengths winner at 4/1 BOG (7/2 SP).
Yesterday's results were as follows:
One Penny Piece: won at 7/4
Intense Feeling: unplaced at 13/8 (SP 5/4)
Keshi Pearl: won at 4/1 (SP 7/2)
Molly's A Diva: unplaced at 11/4 (SP 13/8)
Results to date:
65 winning selections from 211 = 30.81%
20 winning doubles in 58 days = 34.48%
P/L : +10.31pts (+9.04% ROI)
A double-digit profit figure is pleasing to the eye and after back-to-back successes since we returned from our break, we seek the hat-trick in a couple of chases this afternoon, starting with the...
Just four go to post for this one and the current favourite is Baby Shine at 15/8 (Paddy Power) and if the market is formed based on hurdling ability, then that's a pretty fair assessment of how this might pan out. Of the four on show here, she was the best hurdler, eventually running to a mark of 134 and finishing 5th in the listed OLBG Mares Handicap at Cheltenham, despite carrying 2nd top weight.
She was travelling well on her chase debut at Fontwell, when falling 4 out almost a month ago and provided that hasn't dented her confidence, she could/should be a big player here today, but I fear she might be overturned by the consistent Corrin Wood, despite receiving a chunk of weight via her mares' allowance.
Corrin Wood is currently available at 5/2 and although this is his chasing debut, he has won point to point races in the past and his rules record of 3221332 is pretty impressive. Stamina won't be an issue here either, he gets 3 miles (plus!) on soft ground and has run well over today's trip on heavy too, so he's every chance of outstaying the filed if it becomes attritional.
I like Kindly Note (7/2 with Stan James) for this one for the in-form Emma Lavelle yard. She showed some promise when 3rd on her chasing debut at Stratford back in September. She has made the frame in 6 of her last 9 starts and gets this trip and longer on most going conditions. She runs off the same mark as she performed well from over hurdles last season and she does look more suited to the bigger obstacles.
The potential fly in the ointment is the current 7/4 favourite Tante Sissi, who has the best hurdles record of these here today. Not always consistent, but she has undoubted ability as seen when she landed a listed contest at Newbury back in March. She was running off 127 over hurdles and if she transfers that ability to the bigger fences, then an opening chase mark of 124 could be quite lenient. Alan King's horses are going well this season and he reported that this one schooled well on Monday.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Baby Shine / Tante Sissi @ 7.92 with SkyBet and Paddy Power
Baby Shine / Kindly Note @ 12.38 with Stan James
Corrin Wood / Tante Sissi @ 10.08 with SkyBet
Corrin Wood / Kindly Note @ 15.75 with Stan James