Double Dutch, 21st November 2014
In what is becoming frustratingly repetitive, yesterday saw us find another unaccompanied winner in the shape of Chetan. He was made to work hard, but held on to score by half a length to maintain his good run of recent form.
Unfortunately, the double was already dead in the water by the time Chetan ran, after two indifferent/disappointing performances at Market Rasen, where just five went to post, one fell and our two runners were the last two home. And had Hone Run not slipped and fallen, we'd have still been the last two home.
I don't think they were bad picks, but they were definitely bad runs.
Thursday's results were as follows:
First Fandango: u/p at 4/1 (adv 3/1)
Henryville: u/p at 5/2 (adv 2/1)
Chetan: won at 6/5 (adv 7/4)
Tommy's Geal: u/p at 15/2 (adv 9/2)
Results to date:
414 winning selections from 1438 = 28.79%
132 winning bets in 374 days = 35.29%
P/L : +74.58pts (+9.98% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
I'm sick of rattling the crossbar this week, need to get closer with these...
Paul Nicholls' horses are really firing at the moment (22/77 in the last month, including 2/2 yesterday) and he has won this race on the three of the last eight renewals and will fancy his chances here again with The Brock Again, who looks like a typical Nicholls French import, well used to running in the mud. His last run in France saw him finish second in a 2m Listed contest on heavy ground and the majority of his work has been on soft (or worse) ground.
Conditions are ideal here for him today and he has the experience of UK racing under his belt after a very creditable 3rd place finish at Sandown a fortnight ago coming off the back of a 10 month absence from the track and a change of surroundings. The Brock Again should strip fitter for that run and should be there or thereabouts today at a current best price of 15/8 BOG.
The big threat must surely be Anthony Honeyball's Oscarteaa, who is a rare Honeyball runner in the North West. Anthony's string are coming to the boil nicely with some good performances over the last few days and it's interesting that Oscarteaa comes here to be just Mr Honeyball's third ever runner at this track and his first for over two years.
This 5yr old runner was a winner on his hurdles debut at Ffos Las 12 days ago, when comfortably winning by a good ten lengths over today's trip on similarly soft ground after some decent bumper form. This is obviously a greater task than last time out, but that last win was really facile for him, despite it being his first effort in 8 months. He's sure to come on for the experience of having jumped for the first time and improvement is expected of him. If you like Oscarteaa, you can get on at 9/4 BOG.
Where there's every possibility of Anthony Honeyball completing a quickfire across the card double here on a track where he certainly isn't a stranger. His record at Ffos Las is excellent and in the improving Dan's Wee Man he has every opportunity of landing yet another winner here in South Wales. This horse has finished third and then second on his last two starts, both here at Ffos Las. The first was a Class 3 hurdles race on soft ground, back in May before making his chasing debut and seasonal reappearance here 12 days ago.
He was only beaten by a length and a quarter that day and he's sure to have benefited from having had the run and also now knowing what the fences are like here. He's due to go up 2lbs soon, so has a slight advantage there and Dan's Wee Man stands a really good chance here at 7/2 BOG, providing...
...he can beat the current 2/1 BOG favourite Tara Road. He was a well beaten 4th of 6 runners on his chasing debut at Chepstow six weeks ago, but in his defence that was 2 grades higher than today and he did at least get round unscathed, so we know he can at least jump. He has since made a handicap debut over hurdles, winning at Ascot three weeks ago, beating the hat-trick seeking Lightentertainment, so Tara Road now comes here in decent nick. he has chasing experience and has won point to point races.
I don't foresee either the going or the trip to cause him too many concerns, he stays further than this and has some good efforts on soft/heavy behind him. If Tara Road & Dan's Wee Man's jumping holds up, we could have an exciting contest on our hands.
4 x 0.5pt doubles as follows:
The Brock Again / Tara Road @ 7.63/1 (15/8 & 2/1 : Stan James)
The Brock Again / Dan's Wee Man @ 11.37/1 (7/4 & 7/2 : Betfair SB, Coral & Paddy Power)
Oscarteaa / Tara Road @ 8.75/1 (9/4 & 2/1 : Betfair SB, BetVictor & Paddy Power)
Oscarteaa / Dan's Wee Man @ 14.63/1 (9/4 & 7/2 : Betfair SB, BetVictor & Paddy Power)