Double Dutch, 21st September 2013
Not for the first time, and for the second successive day, we bombed out in race 1, but had the 1-2 in race 2. This time, neither of the two marktet leaders, Diplomat and Shamar, even made the frame despite SPs of 6/5 and 9/4 respectively.
This, of course, meant that whilst we got the first two home in race 2, both at significantly lower odds than we'd advised, it was another disappointing day. There was, however, a little light relief for those of you doing the forecasts/exactas, as a £1 Exacta paid £9.50, which isn't bad considering the SPs were 7/4 & 9/4.
Yesterday's results were as follows:
Diplomat : 4th
Shamar : 5th
Horsted Keynes : won at 11/4 (SP 7/4)
Invisible Hunter : 2nd at 3/1 (SP 9/4)
Trial to date:
14 winning selections from 59 = 23.73%
2 winning doubles in 16 days
P/L : -19.34pts (-62.39% ROI)
It's all well and good me saying that we're not a million miles away from having a decent crack at this, but unfortunately results have been poor and I need a better outcome from today's races which start with the...
A handicap mark of 82 allotted to a runner in an ordinary maiden suggests that Red Warrior should be taking this quite easily: last year's winner had an OR of 70. He has already beaten a couple of today's rivals in the process of finishing just a length and a half behind the winner at Newcastle last time out.
I expect him to handle the drop in trip today and he'll probably keep himself towards the head of affairs and the 6/4 price tag is probably about right.
The main danger is likely to come from lightly-raced Dawn Calling, who acquitted himself well enough to finish third on debut at Ripon (beaten by 10l), before repeating that placing at Kempton last time out. He's a £100k Shamardal half-brother to 9.5f/1¼m winner Chatterer and he's expected to show further improvement today at odds of 13/8.
The winner from this race should come from the first three in the market. Song of Rowland is quite rightly favourite at 6/4 and really should be taking this one. This is a Class 6 race and he has a Class 4 win under his belt just three starts ago and has run at 3 and 2 since, so this is a major step down for him today. The only slight worry is whether he takes to the surface, which might open the door for...
...either Kodafine or Hickster. Kodafine has some ability at this level, but suffers from real temperament issues. So much so, that she reared at the start at Lingfield last time out and put jockey Richard Hughes on the floor: Mr Hughes has now jumped ship onto the favourite! The concerns about that filly's attitude will unfortunately override the undoubted ability she possesses, so I'll give her a wide berth and go with Hickster at 5/1.
Hickster was sparked into life with the application of a visor last time out at Kempton at double-digit odds behind Morally Bankrupt, who has since stepped up in class and won again. If the visor repeats its effectiveness and Hickster runs to his best, he could push this favourite all the way.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Red Warrior/ Song of Rowland @ 5.95 with BetVictor and/or Hills
Red Warrior / Hickster @ 15.00 with BetVictor and/or BoyleSports
Dawn Calling / Song of Rowland @ 6.25 with Hills
Dawn Calling / Hickster @ 15.78 with Stan James