Double Dutch, 21st September 2015
Saturday was a day of fine margins where, unfortunately we just came up a little short.
The first race (Newmarket) went out way with Bateel defying a market drift out to 11/4 from 9/4 to win by almost three lengths with our other runner Distain a further 4 lengths bak in third place.
So far so good, off to Wolverhampton where Yorkindred Spirit also drifted in the betting (11/2 from 5/2) finished just a short head clear of the well fancied (5/4 from 7/2) Kristjano, but we were defied a really good 23.38/1 double by Sandy Cove who won the race by just half a length hanging on.
Saturday's results were as follows:
Bateel : WON at 11/4 (adv 9/4)
Distain : 3rd at 7/4 (adv 6/4)
Yorkindred Spirit : 2nd at 11/2 (adv 5/2)
Kristjano : 3rd at 5/4 (adv 7/2)
Results to date:
676 winning selections from 2416 = 27.98%
215 winning bets in 627 days = 34.29%
P/L : +105.57pts (+8.43% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Our first selections of the new week are...
It's hardly inspiring when the market leaders have already tried and failed on eight occasions between them to get off the mark and six runner-up finishes from seven this term might have made them expensive to follow, but there's no getting away from the fact that they clearly set the standard on form.
Count Montecristo (15/8 BOG) is 2222 this season at 7, 8 and 9 furlongs, having been outpaced over the shorter trips and didn't quite see the nine out, so it is hoped that the 8.5f compromise distance will pay rewards here. Trainer Kevin Ryan has a good record at this track and also with runners that are his only entrants of the day, so hopefully it will be a case of fifth time lucky today!
Don Keyhoe Tay (also 15/8 BOG) is slighly less exposed after just three starts (622), having not raced as a two year old. His profile is similar to the one above in that he didn't see out 10.5f on debut and looked like a mile wasn't quite far enough in two runner-up finishes since. The Fahey yard is absolutely flying at the moment (14/70 in the last 7 days) and they'll be hoping to build upon their good record here at Hamilton with this one.
Saeed bin Suroor's runners are in good form lately and he does have a good record in A/W handicaps, especially here at Kempton and in Power Game has a really live opportunity of adding a 9/4 BOG winner to the 8 successes from just 23 runners he's saddled up in the last fortnight.
This horse is a course and distance winner, having finished 211 in three efforts over track and trip, the latest being a 4 lengths success under today's jockey four weeks ago. A mark of 84 for his handicap debut doesn't look too severe based on that run and with his handler being very adept at getting his handicap debutants into the winners' circle, Power Game has to be respected here.
Si Senor, on the other hand, has far more handicap experience and makes his 10th start in such contests today. He's 3/7 here in hcps at Kempton (3/6 over C&D) and looks a big danger dropping down two classes to just squeeze into this C4 0-85 hcp.
His trainer, Ed Vaughan has a 20% strike rate in handicaps on this track (23/115 since 2009), whilst jockey Freddie Tylicki has won 18.8% of his handicap outings (32/170) here since the start of 2012 (4/7 for Ed Vaughan!), all of which puts Si Senor in with a great chance at 7/2 BOG.
For the benefit of brevity, I've purposefully not expanded on the stats I've based the selections upon, but I'm always happy to deal with queries via the comments box below.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Count Montecristo / Power Game @ 8.34/1 (15/8 & 9/4 : SkyBet)
Count Montecristo / Si Senor @ 11.94/1 (15/8 & 7/2 : generally)
Don Keyhoe Tay / Power Game @ 8.34/1 (15/8 & 9/4 : generally)
Don Keyhoe Tay / Si Senor @ 11.94/1 (15/8 & 7/2 : Betfair Sports, BetVictor & Paddy)