Double Dutch, 22nd February 2014
After a largely frustrating last few near-miss days, we got back to winning ways in style yesterday, as both race favourites got turned over on the way to providing us with a meaty 23.38/1 double to ease the recent pain! 😀
Firstly, I corrected nominated Devon Drum to beat Song And Dance Man, who I suspected might need the run after a long break. The latter was unable to quicken in the closing stages and finished in 4th place, just a length and a half behind our winner, who has drifted from our advised 9/4 out to 11/4.
This gave us a decent stake on what looked a sure thing at Exeter, but 6/5 favourite Astigos failed to shine and was way back in 6th place, some 43 lengths or so behind our 11/2 reserve pick Storm Alert, who kept up his good course record to land the spoils, just a length and a half ahead of 18/1 BOG shot Lundy Sky, who had been highlighted as a good E/W bet on Matt's Shortlist.
That meant it was a good race all round for Geegeez and helped push the DD figures to new heights.
Yesterday's results were as follows:
Devon Drum: won at 11/4 (adv 9/4)
Song And Dance Man: 4th at 7/4 (adv 2/1)
Storm Alert: won at 11/2 (adv 11/2)
Astigos: u/p at 6/5 (adv 5/4)
Results to date:
160 winning selections from 558 = 28.67%
54 winning bets in 148 days = 36.49%
P/L : +43.44pts (+14.88% ROI)
We'll be looking to take our ROI beyond the 15% marker today and on towards the 50pts profit mark with these:
Richard Lee's horses go really well on heavy ground, especially over these longer trips (13/55 over 24 to 26 f on heavy) and he runs the likely favourite Goodtoknow here today. This horse has been running progressively well of late following up two narrow defeats over fences with a convincing 10 lengths win last time out. He had finished second (beaten by 0.75l and then just ahead) in the two races prior to his recent win at Bangor. That was over a trip just half a furlong longer than today, also on heavy ground (where he is 141) and despite a further 11lb hike in weight, looks the best bet here at 85/40 BOG with BetVictor.
Ballylifen probably looks the best of the rest of a bad-looking bunch after Super Villan's withdrawal, but I'm concerned about the 10lb claimer on board what can be a tricky horse to ride. All of which leaves me in a bit of quandary, but Woodford County might just be the one to spring a potential surprise, should Goodtoknow not be at his best.
Woodford County was well beaten last time out, but that was his chasing debut and he's entitled to come on for it. He's still unexposed after just seven career starts. He was 150515 over hurdles, all at 3 miles or beyond and all on soft/heavy ground, so conditions and trip shouldn't be his undoing here. He's in the more than capable hands of Tom O'Brien here who rode him to victory last time they met. He could well end up providing a bit of a shock at the 13/2 BOG on offer from Coral.
Paul Nicholls likes to win this race, having done so three times in the last five years and has a couple of decent sorts entered today, the better of which is likely to be Alcala, who is currently a 7/2 BOG chance to win on his UK debut. He's receiving weight all round and comes here off the back of a win in a 12f bumper in France which he followed up with a decent 2nd place over hurdles at Auteuil (18f on very soft ground). That last run suggests he'll handle conditions today and will hope to maintain the Ditcheat team's success in this event.
My preference, however, is for Harry Fry's Activial. The Fry horses has been running exceptionally well for some time now and have maintained a strike rate of over 30% for more than a year now. The yard has had 6 winners from their 15 runners here at Kempton and I fancy that record to be further improved today. Activial holds a triumph Hurdle entry and ran a very creditable second place to the more than usual Calipto (well fancied for the Triumph) on his UK debut, which also came on the back of a 12f bumper win in France. He might not yet be up to Calipto standard, but he should be good enough to take this at a generally available 2/1 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Goodtoknow / Activial @ 8.38/1 (85/40 & 2/1 : BetVictor)
Goodtoknow / Alcala @ 13.06/1 (85/40 & 7/2 : BetVictor)
Woodford County / Activial @ 21.50/1 (13/2 & 2/1 : Coral)
Woodford County / Alcala @ 32.75/1 (13/2 & 7/2 : Coral)