Double Dutch, 22nd January 2014
And back down to earth with a bump! After a run of 4 winning doubles in 7 days, I suppose a bad day at the office was almost overdue!
The best I could manage was the one length defeat of Columbian Roulette, who had been backed in from 2/1 to an SP 0f 5/4, but failed to catch the winner.
This was probably just as well, since the second race was a personal disaster. Carli King beat Grey Wulff home by some 53 lengths, as the pair finished 4th and 5th in a five horse race and despite CK putting that distance between him and GW, he was still a good 25 lengths behind the winner. Moving on is our best bet here!
Yesterday's results were as follows:
Columbian Roulette : 2nd at 5/4 (adv 2/1)
Frankthetank : 5th at 4/1 (adv 3/1)
Carli King : 4th of 5 (adv 11/4)
Grey Wulff : 5th of 5! (adv 2/1)
Results to date:
126 winning selections from 436 = 28.90%
41 winning doubles in 117 days = 35.04%
P/L : +16.04pts (+6.91% ROI)
A quick return to winning ways is hoped for from these:
Dianne Sayer trained the winner of the last running of this race and she'll fancy her chances of repeating the feat with Newdane Dancer who won over course and distance when dropped into a seller almost four weeks ago. This may be a Class 5 handicap, but the reality is that it's of no better quality than that seller. She stayed on strongly to win that day and seemed to have plenty in hand. She is, admittedly, up 8lbs for that win, but still receives chunks of weight from most of her rivals here.
Newdane Dancer is 2 from 4 on soft ground and is the only course and distance winner on the race and I expect her to "double" up at 7/2 BOG today with the most likely threat coming from Logical Approach, who was 3rd here three weeks over 2m3f and ran very well before running out of steam late on and it is expected that he'll be happier at this shorter trip in a race that looks far less competitive than his New Year's Day appearance.
First-time blinkers seemed to help him that day and they are reapplied here in the hope that at 5/1 BOG, he can offer a real alternative to the main selection.
Millers Reef was excellent last time out when he handled the soft ground superbly to win by five lengths over a similar trip to today. It's soft yet again here and this could develop into an attritional battle. That run four weeks ago seemed to be what he's been looking for and took it in his stride on his first attempt at a trip 5 furlongs further than ever before. A 7lb rise shouldn't stop him from putting in another big effort and he looks a decent bet at 2/1 BOG.
Bold Tara has really upped her game of late and finished second over course and distance here five weeks ago, before following up with a win her a fortnight ago over a shorter trip on heavy ground. She's up 10lbs for that win, but has a 7lb claimer on board which should help her on her 4th visit to Southwell, having won once and been placed on her other two runs, which were both over this trip and on soft ground. She could be a danger at 9/2 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles with Bet365 as follows:
Newdane Dancer / Millers Reef @ 12.50/1 (7/2 & 2/1)
Newdane Dancer / Bold Tara @ 23.75/1 (7/2 & 9/2)
Logical Approach / Millers Reef @ 17/1 (5/1 & 2/1)
Logical Approach / Bold Tara @ 32/1 (5/1 & 9/2)