Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 22nd July 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 22nd July 2015

Tuesday wasn't one of my better days of the 576 Double Dutches we've done so far. Admittedly, it wasn't the worst of them, but just one placer from two 8-runner races isn't good.

Excellent Aim was the placer, finishing as runner-up at Chelmsford, but pretty well beaten by 3.5 lengths in a 5f sprint with our other pick, Emily Davison back in 7th of the 8 runners, a further 5 lengths back.

That was all academic anyway, as we'd bombed out at Ffos Las earlier, where Mad Endeavour's 4 length defeat in 4th lace was the best we could muster. Once again, we had the 7th horse home in an 8-runner race with Azergam beaten by almost 20 lengths!

A day to forget, as...

Tuesday's results were as follows:

Mad Endeavour : 4th at 2/1 (adv 7/2)
Azergam : 7th at 5/1 (adv 3/1)
----------------------------------------------------
Excellent Aim : 2nd at 5/2 (adv 10/3)
Emily Davison : 7th at 7/2 (adv 5/2)

Results to date:
631 winning selections from 2222 = 28.40%
201 winning bets in 576 days = 34.90%

Stakes: 1151.50pts
Returns: 1286.31pts
P/L : +134.81pts (+11.71% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

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I'm expecting better from these for Wednesday...

4.40 Bath :

I've a feeling that this could be a close-run thing between two runners who were both course and distance winners last time out.

A switch of yard and the pairing with 3lb claimer jockey has brought about some consistent form for Senor George, who has now finished 35231 in the five outings since the changes were made. He had to be restrained during his last run and the way he finished the race suggests this 8 yr old still had something left in reserve.

He will, of course, need to find a little bit more under a 6lb penalty, but the manner of his win last week does make today's 5/2 BOG odds a viable proposition in a race, where his main rival is expected to be Strictly The One, who prevailed by just a neck over track and trip a fortnight ago. That said, other than a spin over hurdles in early June, it was his first outing in 6.5 months, so he might not have been as sharp as he'd like.

He'll come on for having had that run and although that was his first crack at 1m5f, stamina shouldn't be an issue for a horse with 9 NH runs at up to 2m4f under his belt and if you like him, he's currently available at 7/2 BOG.

*

6.35 Sandown :

Off a mark of 85 gained via a win at Windsor a little over three weeks ago, Wekeyll is rated the best horse in the race and added to that he gets a healthy 8lb weight for age allowance which will really help his cause on hos handciap debut today. William Haggas' horses are in good form, he has a good record on this track and is renowned for getting his handicappers to win on debut.

If that wasn't enough, the form of Wekeyll's win LTO seems to be working out well. Two of the four immediately behind him that day have since reappeared and both have gone on to win and if you think our runner can complete a hat-trick of winners from Windsor, then he's currently priced at 7/4 BOG : not the longest price ever, but good as half of a double.

I'd expect American Artist to be the main challenger here at 5/2 BOG. He won his second (and final) start of last season at Goodwood and although his two handcipa runs to date since then haven't quite hit the same heights, he hasn't let anyone down and there's probably plenty more to come from him.

He was 7th of 10 off the back of a 30-week absence at Epsom in April, but was only beaten by two lengths after he weakened inside the final furlong, as he was probably entitled to. That close race has since produced 7 wins and 7 places from 30 subsequent rides from the runners that day, whilst American Artist was rested for another 11 weeks before running 6th of 12 at Kempton in a better race than this last time out.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Senor George / Wekeyll @ 8.63/1 (5/2 & 7/4 : Totesport)
Senor George / American Artist @ 11.25/1 (5/2 & 5/2 : Totesport)
Strictly The One / Wekeyll @ 11.38/1 (7/2 & 7/4 : Totesport)
Strictly The One / American Artist @ 14.75/1 (7/2 & 5/2 : Totesport)

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15 replies
  1. Chris Worrall says:

    A bit of a calamity this morning, I’m afraid.

    Between getting all the info together and getting it online, Wekeyyl was withdrawn and Betfred/Totesport has gone down!

    So the revised situation is now as follows…

    4 x 0.5pts bets :
    Senor George @ 5/2 BOG (generally)
    Senor George / American Artist @ 7.75/1 (5/2 & 6/4 : generally)
    Strictly The One @ 7/2 BOG (SkyBet)
    Strictly The One / American Artist @ 10.25/1 (7/2 & 6/4 : SkyBet)

    Chris

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Planned maintenance at Betfred/Tote (though quite why anyone would plan maintenance on a Wednesday morning is beyond me!!)

      Due back up around 2pm… Amazing, isn’t it?!

  2. agentoranje says:

    Re: American Artist / William Buick’s Birthday today, maybe they withdrew Wekeyell as a gift (“,)

  3. tonyb65 says:

    Hello Chris,

    I have been doing the SOD for a couple of years but just stated doing the double dutch. What do you do in the event of a non runner like today. I have just placed the two bets available with the remaining selections.

    Thanks for your great work.

    Regards

    Tony

    • Chris Worrall says:

      Normally you’ve placed all four bets before the non-runner comes out.
      So, you’re left with two doubles and two singles as in my example above.

      Chris

  4. tonyb65 says:

    I’m afraid the non runner was out early this morning. I placed my bets at 9.21 not long after you posted. Naturally when you make your selections they are all runners so I would appreciate an answer to my original question about what do you do suggest we do in the event of a non runner.

    Thanks

    • Chris Worrall says:

      I’m not sure what it is that you want me to tell you, other than what I’ve already said.

      If you place the bets pre-non runner, you get two singles and two doubles.
      If you’re placing bets after the non-runner , you can do as above or do something else: I offer no advice on the something else.

  5. tom morris says:

    spectacular og in 4-40 bath today..7th and 8th of 8 runners.double dutch,no returns today..never mind, Chris

    • Chris Worrall says:

      og?
      really?

      It wasn’t a good result, but a surprising one. The two market leaders in an 8-runner race aren’t often the last two home.
      Plenty of burnt fingers out there.

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Tom

      To add to what Chris has said, please do take time to understand the long-term profitability and that, on a daily basis, bad things can (and DO) happen. In essence, 7th and 8th is no better than 2nd and 3rd. Both pay us nothing.

      Again, I’d encourage you to think longer term. If that’s going to be a problem, Double Dutch almost certainly won’t be for you.

      Matt

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