Double Dutch, 22nd March 2014
We were a short head / stewards' decision away from an 8.3/1 double yesterday after an eventful second race.
In race one, King's Request duly completed a C&D hat-trick as expected and the 11/4 price meant we'd a decent stake going on to our pair of runners at Wolverhampton.
As it was Sorry Saeed was withdrawn and whilst that meant a return on the first half of that double, it has reduced our price on Bereka by some 35%.
Bereka's run was a little contentious to say the least, it looked like she'd timed her run to the line nicely, but the leader Moonspring started off to the right, carrying our runner with her. Despite there being no actual physical interference, our runner was taken off a true line and lost by a short head.
This isn't my pocket talking, but I think the stewards were wrong not to reverse the placings after calling an enquiry. Our mount finished strongest and I'm convinced she'd have won if allowed to stay on a straight line. This belief is further compounded by the fact that Moonspring's jockey continued to keep his whip in his left hand, despite the horse straying to the right.
Nevertheless, we made a small return that almost covered our stakes, so it could have been a worse day!
Yesterday's results were as follows:
Kings Request: won at 6/4 (adv 11/4)
Keep Kicking: 3rd at 4/1 (adv 7/2)
Bereka: 2nd at Evens (adv 15/8 = 11/9 after R4)
Sorry Saeed: non-runner (adv 2/1)
Results to date:
188 winning selections from 656 = 28.66%
63 winning bets in 172 days = 36.63%
P/L : +53.03pts (+15.51% ROI)
Saturday's racing is as intriguing as ever and I think I've found us a couple of winnable contests...
At a current price of 5/1 BOG, Munsarim looks really good value here to take the opener. He comes here seeking a hat-trick of Lingfield wins this month and although he's stepping up in trip today, looks sure to give another good account of himself on a track where he is 5 from 11. Jockey bookings in these apprentice races are often the difference between success and failure and I think the presence of Louis Steward in the saddle today is a positive factor.
Sian Gwalia is an interesting one here, too. In good nick over 1m4f of late (24121), she's looks the most likely of the main protagonists to handle the step up in trip to 1m5f and she's by far the least exposed of the bunch after just 8 runs to date. She travelled really strongly last time out and won easily with plenty in hand, suggesting that 6lbs and an extra furlong wouldn't be enough to stop her going in again today at 9/4 BOG (Betfair Sportsbook)
The racecard says this is a Class 3 contest, but it looks pretty poor on paper. That said, somebody has to win it and it might well pay to side with Dark And Dangerous at 5/2 BOG with Stan James. This 6yr old saves his best work for ground on the softer side of good, where all four of his wins have come from just 10 outings. He stayed on well at Catterick to win by a length and a half last time out and a 4lb weight rise doesn't look too onerous. A clear round might be all that's needed to land this.
Sands Cove has hardly set the world on fire since coming over from Ireland, but his last outing at Sandown was probably his best run since the switch. He stayed on well to finish third, just two lengths off the winner that day and as this looks such a mediocre contest, he probably wouldn't have to improve much to finally get his name back on the winners' list. He gets to run off the same 120 mark today and he jumps well enough to be a contender at a generally available 9/4 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Sian Gwalia / Sands Cove @ 9.56/1 (9/4 & 9/4 : BetVictor)
Sian Gwalia / Dark And Dangerous @ 10.38/1 (9/4 & 5/2 : Stan James)
Munsarim / Sands Cove @ 18.50/1 (5/1 & 9/4 : BetVictor, Betfred & Hills)
Munsarim / Dark And Dangerous @ 20.00/1 (5/1 & 5/2 : Stan James)