Double Dutch, 22nd May 2014
Miss Tenacious looked well set to land the opener for us yesterday, before proceeding to clatter through the penultimate fence, which pretty much took away both her momentum and the subsequently the race.
The second race was even more disappointing, with neither of our runners really landing any sort of blow.
Wednesday's results were as follows:
Miss Tenacious: 2nd at 11/4 (adv 9/4)
Benny's Quest: 3rd at 4/1 (adv 11/4)
Thedeboftheyear: u/p at 3/1 (adv 5/1)
Realta Mo Croi: PU at 5/2 (adv 2/1)
Results to date:
236 winning selections from 846 = 27.90%
76 winning bets in 221 days = 34.39%
P/L : +39.82pts (+9.05% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Thursday's selections are as follows...
Where Lion Beacon looks the safest option at 100/30 BOG (SkyBet). Three wins and fives places from eleven runs gradually stepping up in trip and class show progression and consistency. He was very effective last season around the 14f type of trip and I expect him to get the extra 2f today. He ran really well when finishing second to Itlaaq on his seasonal reappearance at Doncaster 19 days ago, when he narrowly failed to make all over 14.5f, only going down by three parts of a length.
He was entitled to have needed the run after a break of exactly seven months, but he stayed on well and will be buoyed by Itlaaq's subsequent run at York last week, when 3rd stepping up two grades. Ryan Moore rides Lion Beacon for the first time today and he is 8/32 on Amanda Perrett's horses over the last four seasons.
Our Folly is an interesting one here and looks a bit long at 8/1 BOG (I might have a small E/W bet too). he was fourth at Newbury last time out on the back of a 23-weeks break and acquitted himself really well. The trip isn't an issue, with two wins already under his belt at 2m and he has won over 2m1f. He was a winner here last term over course and distance. He's proven on good ground, having won two of his last starts under these conditions and if he can maintain his form/progress, he could upset the favourite today.
I'm going with Dubai Prince here, he's a former 114-rated Group 3 winner on the Flat, so won't lack for a turn of foot if needed and has already won twice over hurdles (1P371) with the worst of those runs coming at a much higher level (Gr2). He acts well on Good ground, which is currently the forcast, but if the heavy rain materialises, he won't be troubled by that either: his debut hurdles outing/win was on good to soft.
There's a positive jockey booking here too, with AP taking the ride for the first time and the Champ has a brilliant record here at Wetherby, where over the last six seasons he has won 23 of 53 hurdles contests on horses priced at 9/2 or shorter and could very well add to that tally today with a 100/30 BOG winner.
There are several capable of posing problems to the main selection, but I think Knight In Purple, who has won this race in each of the last two years, might need the run after a 31-weeks absence and I'm concerned that Pair of jacks might struggle to contend with a 10lb hike in weight allied to a step up in class.
This, almost by default, brings me to Gassin Golf. This one may not have won over hurdles yet, but that day won't be far away. He has made the frame seven times from ten starts over hurdles and this possibly represents one of his easiest chances to get off the mark. He was also a useful performer on the Flat at Class 2 level and must be considered to have some ability over hurdles.
So much so, that he ran in last years JCB Triumph Hurdle and was only beaten by a length (Baltimore Rock) in the Grade 3 William Hill Imperial Cup at Sandown in March. He ran well enough in defeat to a Mullins/Walsh odds-on jolly last time out to suggest it could be his turn today at odds of 5/2 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Lion Beacon / Gassin Golf @ 13.08/1 (10/3 & 9/4 : SkyBet)
Lion Beacon / Dubai Prince @ 17.78/1 (10/3 & 10/3 : SkyBet)
Our Folly / Gassin Golf @ 30.50/1 (8/1 & 5/2 : BetFred & BoyleSports)
Our Folly / Dubai Prince @ 38/1 (8/1 & 10/3 : BetVictor, Coral, Hills & SkyBet)