Double Dutch, 22nd November 2013
The hat-trick bid was foiled yesterday as we went from the sublime to the ridiculous after a crazy race at Wincanton.
Things were going to plan after I correctly identified that Corrin Wood could turn the favourite over in race 1 and after landing myself a 5/1 forecast, we moved on to race 2 from Wincanton, where I felt Kindly Note had a better chance than Tante Sissi.
The race was littered with jumping errors from start to finish. Of the six runners, Tante Sissi jumped the best, until making one solitary error at the 12th, where he sprawled on landing. He didn't fall, but his race was effectively over at that point and he was pulled up shortly after.
Four of the remaining five runners did fall/unseat their rider though, including our selection Kindly Note, who was one of two to go at the last fence.
Yesterday's results were as follows:
Corrin Wood: won at 5/2 (SP 2/1)
Baby Shine: 2nd at 15/8 (SP 7/4)
(The forecast paid £5.99)
Kindly Note: fell at 7/2 (SP 11/4)
Tante Sissi: PU at 11/4
Results to date:
66 winning selections from 215 = 30.70%
20 winning doubles in 59 days = 33.90%
P/L : +8.31pts (+7.16% ROI)
I'll be hoping to recoup yesterday losses in these races today...
Beat That is currently the 6/4 (Stan James) favourite for this one and it's fairly clear to see why. This is a race lacking in quality/depth and he has run very creditably in both bumper starts to date. Nicky Henderson says this one has filled out quite a bit and has schooled well over the summer and looks a decent prospect upped in trip.
However, I fancy Sybarite to turn him over here today. Although he has been off the track since March 2012, he comes here on the back of a 5-race winning streak in point to point contests and if he can get back to anything like his past hurdles form, he could take this at attractive odds of 3/1 with Coral
He'd lost his way over fences when last seen on a racecourse, but prior to being sent chasing, had a decent record over hurdles, including a second place finish in a Grade 2 contest and he was also considered good enough to contest the Albert Bartlett back in 2011. He is the pick of the bunch on past form and comes here in good nick.
Just four runners here and I'd expect this one to go the way of the 13/8 favourite Simply Ned, who was very impressive when securing his first chase victory at only the second attempt at Ayr 19 days ago. he has won over this trip in the past, and he also has victories on good to soft, soft and heavy (LTO) ground, so the going shouldn't be too much of a concern here. A clear round should give him his 6th career win from just 13 starts and carrying seven pounds less than his rivals won't hurt either.
You could make a case for any of the other three runners as the back-up plan, but I think I'll side with top-rated Fago. His official rating is 152 and despite conceding 7lbs to Simply Ned, he's actually rated 14 lbs higher, whilst he carries the same weight as the other two runners, rated at 142 and 137.
He is, therefore, pretty well treated at the weights and has experience of running in far better company than this with his last two runs coming at Grades 1 & 2. He had looked very good earlier in the year at this level, before unsuccessfully stepping up in class. He does, however, have a bit to prove now, but this is reflected in his 11/4 price.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Beat That / Simply Ned @ 5.95 with BetFred (6.56 non-BOG @ SportingBet)
Beat That / Fago @ 9.38 with Stan James
Sybarite / Simply Ned @ 10.50 with Coral
Sybarite / Fago @ 15.00 with BetVictor & Coral