Double Dutch, 22nd November 2014
Deja vu, groundhog day, call it what the hell you like, but I'm certainly enduring it this week.
Another day goes by with some decent (IMO!) picks running well enough, but not quite landing the double. As cruel fate would have it, we ended up with a winner, two runners-up (both of the Honeyball horses) and a third place. We couldn't have been much nearer.
The small silver lining, I suppose was the 7.22/1 forecast from race 2 for those who play that way, but it was scan consolation to me in reality.
Friday's results were as follows:
Oscarteaa: 2nd at 11/4 (adv 9/4)
The Brock Again: 3rd at evens (adv 15/8)
Tara Road: won at 2/1 (adv 7/4)
Dan's Wee Man: 2nd at 5/2 (adv 9/2)
The forecast paid £8.22 here.
Results to date:
415 winning selections from 1442 = 28.78%
132 winning bets in 375 days = 35.20%
P/L : +72.58pts (+9.68% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Last ones for this week, so I'm hoping to complete a hat-trick of Saturday successes with these...
I like Four Seasons for this one, his trainer and his jockey are both in good form, his yard have done historically well at this venue and he's already won twice in six starts. Hes 1/1 on the all-weather courtesy of a fairly comfortable win at Kempton last time out getting home by a good 3.5 lengths. Jockey Adam Kirby was positively purring about this one after that race and suggested he had plenty in hand for future reference. It's a tight contest here, up in class and weight, but he's the one I'd want to be on at 15/8 BOG with Boylesports.
And it could well be a Godolphin 1-2 with Super Kid being my backup selection here. He's an unexposed 2yr old by Exceed and Excel making only his third start and his A/W debut, but ran impressively in the summer in two 6f maidens, finishing third on debut at Nottingham and then winning by almost two lengths at Epsom. Like Charlie Appleby above, Saeed bin Suroor has a good record here at Lingfield and excels with horses switching from the turf to the A/W for the first time and could be rewarded with a 7/2 BOG victory for Super Kid today.
Where I expect The Fairy to pick up where she left off 16 days ago when winning here over course and distance on her nursery debut. John Gosden's horses are in great form at present and he has an excellent record here at Wolverhampton. I'd expect The Fairy to continue her natural progression and should benefit from having had that experience of both handicap company and also this Wolverhampton track and if all goes to plan, she could be a steal at 2/1 BOG with Bet365.
Her rivals seem to be much of a muchness to be honest, but I think that Anastazia represents good value at 5/1 BOG (BetVictor & Coral). It has taken her a bit longer to get into some decent form but she did win last out at Kempton over 6f, so comes here in good heart. She was also considered good enough to contest two valuable Class 2 events at HQ earlier in the year. The switch to the A/W worked for her last time and although this is her tapeta debut, she looks capable of putting a good run together.
4 x 0.5pt doubles as follows:
Four Seasons / The Fairy @ 7.25/1 (7/4 & 2/1 : bet365)
Four Seasons / Anastazia @ 15.50/1 (7/4 & 5/1 : Coral)
Super Kid / The Fairy @ 12.50/1 (7/2 & 2/1 : bet365)
Super Kid / Anastazia @ 26/1 (7/2 & 5/1 : Coral)