Double Dutch, 22nd September 2015
Not quite enough money to retire on, but Monday provided a nice start to the week with some profits to boot!
A pair of winners at combined advised odds of 8.34/1 hardly breaks the bank, but it does keep the wheel turning at least and also once again reconfirms the need to have access to a wider number of BOG bookies, as the double only paid 6.13/1 and we can't afford to leave money on the table.
Advised odds paid 141% of SP, so there's a chunk of change right here and I should point out that race 2 also generated an Exacta at 6.3/1.
Monday's results were as follows:
Count Montecristo : WON at 11/8 (adv 15/8)
Don Keyhoe Tay : 4th at 3/1 (adv 15/8)
Power Game : WON at 2/1 (adv 9/4)
Si Senor : 2nd at 9/4 (adv 7/2)
The Exacta paid £7.30 to a £1 stake here.
Results to date:
678 winning selections from 2420 = 28.02%
216 winning bets in 628 days = 34.39%
P/L : +108.34pts (+8.63% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
I'll be looking for more joy from...
Connections of Regulation will be hoping the going doesn't deteriorate too much between now and race time, as a softening of the ground should really be the only thing stopping this horse from winning today, providing he clears every hurdle, of course! He was last seen in this grade two starts ago, when cruising to an 8 length victory under today's rider at Uttoxeter 11 weeks ago.
Since then, he has run well in defeat in a Listed race and also at Class 3 (both at Market Rasen) and the drop back to C4 should make life easier today. Over hurdles, he's 2/3 at this grade (411), 2/4 in races of 8 to 10 runners (4121) and 2 from 3 running after a break of 30 to 60 days (311). As I said earlier, today's jockey has already won with him and at 7/4 BOG, Regulation looks the one to beat.
Canicallyouback should prove to be the biggest danger, despite conceding weight all round today. He also has a good recent win at Uttoxeter under his belt, having won there last time out, making him the only other winner in this field. That run was eight weeks ago and he was a winner by 14 lengths that day without really being pressed.
He had run pretty consistently prior to that maiden win, especially in a couple of narrow defeats over this trip at Ffos Las earlier in the "summer" (I use the word loosely) and with some partial fears about the ground for the favourite, Canicallyouback might prove good value for his generally available 7/2 BOG pricetag today.
Chief Entertainer is an interesting runner switched to the A/W after four starts on turf, the latest being a very good run on handicap debut at Catterick last Tuesday when only beaten by half a length on good to soft ground and I'm assuming connections expect the polytrack to run slightly quicker than that ground last week.
Jockey Andrea Atzeni has been in good form of late (7/35 in the last fortnight), trainer Stuart Williams' Kempton handicappers have a 27.4% strike rate at odds below 4/1 here since 2009 and it is expected that at 2/1 BOG, Chief Entertainer will be the latest.
Canford Belle's recent runner-up finish at Catterick is probably the best piece of form displayed by the rest of the field here, despite going down by 5 lengths that day. In fairness to her, she hit a flat spot mid race and lost some ground, but got a second wind and rallied late on to take second place in the closing stages.
The manner of the way she was staying on that day suggests that a step up to this 6f trip could be the key to getting her into the winners enclosure, for despite being fairly well beaten last time out, she was doing all her best work inside the final furlong. I do prefer Chief Entertainer here, but at odds of around 5/1 BOG, Canford Belle can be neither ruled out nor ignored.
For the benefit of brevity, I've purposefully not expanded on the stats I've based the selections upon, but I'm always happy to deal with queries via the comments box below.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Regulation / Chief Entertainer @ 6.88/1 (13/8 & 2/1 : Betfair SB)
Regulation / Canford Belle @ 14.75/1 (13/8 & 5/1 : Betfred & Totesport)
Canicallyouback / Chief Entertainer @ 13.38/1 (4/1 & 15/8 : Bet365 & SkyBet)
Canicallyouback / Canford Belle @ 29/1 (4/1 & 5/1 : SkyBet)