Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 23rd February 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 23rd February 2015

I suggested on Saturday that the booking of Ryan Moore could make the difference for Nigel's Destiny at Lingfield and so it proved as Ryan drove the horse to grab the lead in the shadow of the post to win by a head at 5/2 (we took 11/4 for our doubles), meaning we'd a nice stake for race 2 at Kempton.

There, God's Own was a late withdrawal due to a change in ground condition, which not only halved our chances of securing the double, it meant that our 2/1 taken on Irish Saint was now only worth 6/4 and we'd now be playing for a double at 8.38/1.

There was, however, the silver lining in the form of us getting paid out on a 0.5pts single at 11/4 on the missing Nigel's Destiny / God's Own bet.

As it was, Irish Saint ran out a very easy winner at Even money, so not only did we get the double and a bonus single, we also smashed the SP on another Super Saturday for the Double Dutch on our 450th betting day!

Saturday's results were as follows:

Nigel's Destiny : WON at 5/2 (adv 11/4)
Franco's Secret : 5th at 5/2 (adv 5/2)
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Irish Saint : WON at Evens (adv 6/4 after 25p Rule 4)
God's Own : non-runner (adv 3/1)

Results to date:
498 winning selections from 1738 = 28.60%
155 winning bets in 450 days = 34.30%

Stakes: 899.50pts
Returns: 1003.69pts

P/L : +104.19pts (+11.58% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

We're now just 2 winners away from landing 500 since inception. I'm hoping to get them both today from these races...

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3.00 Wolverhampton:

Where Mukaynis will be looking for a 3rd win in 5 A/W starts which would take his tally here at Wolverhampton to 3 from 3. He was a winner here last time out, when coming late on to win over course and distance five weeks ago. The runner-up and third placed horse have both run and placed again over course and distance off higher marks, so I'd expect this one to be in the mix again.

Shane Gray is 2/3 aboard this horse (2/2 here at Wolves) and takes a useful 3lbs off, which should enable Mukaynis to remain competitive at 15/8 BOG, whilst I was a little surprised to see Boylesports offering 9/2 BOG about Pearl Noir, despite him carrying a penalty for a fairly easy win at Kempton last time out.

5f is his preferred trip and made all to win by a good three lengths over this trip just five days ago, despite taking his foot off the gas once victory was assured. He has been in decent form over the winter, winning twice and placing twice from six starts with both wins coming over today's trip (from 4 runs). David Parkes takes a welcome 7lbs off today and if allowed to dominate, Pearl Noir could well be difficult to catch/pass.

*

3.50 Ayr:

Despite being 0/11 (0/7 over hurdles) and raised a pound for her last effort, bottom weight Kilkenny Kim is the interesting one for me here. It was more a case of not seeing out the 2m 4.5f here at Ayr on soft ground a month ago that was her undoing on the way to a 4.5 length defeat.

She had led over the final flight of hurdles and was only caught and subsequently beaten in the run-in. The drop back in trip to 2 miles allied to the booking of 3lb claimer Peter Carberry for a poor-looking race might just be the key to Kilkenny Kim getting a win on the board at 11/4 BOG.

And if she's 0/7 over hurdles, you might be surprised to find that Plan B is Scimon Templar who is actually 0/14 over timber! But track, trip and ground conditions all look to be positives here today and he was a winner over fences just three starts ago off a mark 6lbs higher than today.

He was in the process of running a decent race at Newcastle last time out, before unseating his rider, but still looks a shade better than most here and with jockey James Reveley in really good form, it could well be Scimon Templar's day at 7/2 BOG.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Mukaynis / Kilkenny Kim @ 10.20/1 (9/5 & 3/1 : Betbright)
Mukaynis / Scimon Templar @ 11.94/1 (15/8 & 7/2 : Bet365, Skybet & Stan James)
Pearl Noir / Kilkenny Kim @ 17.40/1 (18/5 & 3/1 : Betbright)
Pearl Noir / Scimon Templar @ 21.50/1 (4/1 & 7/2 : Bet365, Skybet & Hills)

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4 replies
    • Chris Worrall says:

      Hi Roger,

      Simply, no.
      I can’t substitute, because my bet is placed. So, I end up with 2 singles and 2 doubles.
      You can, however, choose to substitute, of course. If so, I’d probably just take Vincentti.

      Chris

  1. ChrisJB says:

    Hi Chris
    Are there any stats for the selections if they had been backed as singles as well?
    Almost 29% strike rate on selections is not to be sniffed at.
    Just wondering.
    Thanks.
    Chris

    • Chris Worrall says:

      Hi Chris,

      I’m afraid we haven’t kept the stats on the singles, but at 29% SR, we’d need an average odds of around 5/2 to break even/show a small profit and I’m not entirely convinced that has always been the case, but I might be wrong.

      A full spreadsheet would be great, if I could find a willing volunteer! 😀

      Chris

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