Double Dutch, 23rd January 2014
Yesterday was a tale of two fallers and one of frustration. Logical Approach had travelled strongly and was just about leading before making a real hash of a jump late on, whilst Millers Reef was in close contention coming around the home turn, when he clipped the heels of our other selection Bold Tara.
Bold Tara could only manage to finish 4th and when added to Newdane Dancer's third in the opener made for a complete blank, I'm afraid
Yesterday's results were as follows:
Newdane Dancer : 3rd at 4/1 (adv 7/2)
Logical Approach : fell 2 out when leading at 3/1 (adv 5/1)
Bold Tara : 4th at 4/1 (adv 9/2)
Millers Reef : fell when in contention after 3rd from home at 5/2 (adv 2/1)
Results to date:
126 winning selections from 440 = 28.64%
41 winning doubles in 118 days = 34.75%
P/L : +14.04pts (+6.00% ROI)
A quick return to winning ways is hoped for from these:
From today's Shortlist, Matt likes Abi Scarlet here, whilst I like the look of Spitfire and seeing as we get to pick two per race for the Double Dutch, let's take both, shall we?
I can see why Matt picked Abi Scarlet, she's 3 from 4 here at Southwell and 3/3 over Course and Distance and she seems to prefer these small fields with three wins from her six races of six or less runners (two from the last three). She runs off a mark some 8lbs lower than her last win, all of which give her a great chance here at 2/1 BOG.
Spitfire, meanwhile, is also a 2/1 chance in most places and is a 5-time winner at this trip. He has two wins and 3 places from 10 efforts over C&D (212 in his last three attempts and beaten by less than a length LTO). He has run well and won at a much higher level than this in the past and whilst not the force of old, stands to make this a good contest.
This looks to be a straight match-up between two penalty-bearing LTO winners at the head of the market. Of the two in question, Big Society probably offers the best value at odds of 5/2 BOG and he comes here after staying on well to win by 8 lengths at Newcastle 8 days ago on heavy ground. He won very comfortably that day and the fact that this represents a stiffer task, up in trip and Class, is probably why he's as long as he is. That said, he has finished second on two occasions over a trip of three miles, including one run on heavy ground, so I'm happy he'll stay the distance and his record of 2121 on heavy ground is a bonus.
Top-weight and 2/1 BOG (Betfred) favourite Tidal Dance comes here after an impressive win at Towcester last Sunday. Despite a mistake at the last, he stayed on well through the run-in to win by a good 7 lengths over 3 miles on heavy ground, proving he'll get the ground and the trip. The only concern here is whether this race come two soon for a generally consistent sort (323224F1),
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Spitfire / Tidal Dance @ 8/1 (Betfred 2/1 & 2/1)
Spitfire / Big Society @ 9.50/1 (SkyBet, BetVictor, Stan James 2/1 & 5/2)
Abi Scarlet / Tidal Dance @ 8/1 (Betfred 2/1 & 2/1)
Abi Scarlet / Big Society @ 9.50/1 (SkyBet, BetVictor 2/1 & 5/2)