Double Dutch, 23rd January 2015
Sod's Law reared its ugly head again on Thursday in race 1, where I suggested Captain Future was too good for Excelling Oscar, but that the latter would be the one just behind the former and that they both held Pancake Day on previous form.
Well, I was sort of right, but very wrong at the same time. The captain did beat Oscar by one place and almost four lengths, but you've guessed it, Pancake Day won the race by a neck, pipping our runner virtually on the line.
And the day became a blank for us at teatime, when Oratorio's Joy was almost beaten by a neck in a tight finish. We're all aware of how fine the line is between winning and losing and this time we were the wrong side of the line, but there'll be days when we scrape two undeserved winners out to balance things up!
Wednesday's results were as follows:
Captain Future: 2nd at 7/4 (adv 13/8)
Excelling Oscar: 3rd at 3/1 (adv 10/3)
Oratorio's Joy : 2nd at 11/8 (adv 15/8)
Royal Batallion: 4th at 7/2 (adv 5/2)
Results to date:
466 winning selections from 1636 = 28.48%
145 winning bets in 424 days = 34.20%
P/L : +74.11pts (+8.74% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
I'm not here (but Matt will be!) on Saturday, so my last picks for the week are...
Line Daois looks like a horse on a mission. 211 in bumpers was followed by a win at the first attempt over hurdles, before taking a 228 day break to return as a chaser at Wetherby 13 days ago. After such an absence and it being his first attempts over fences, it was understandable that he'd get beaten and whilst he was 37 lengths off the pace, he had a 122-rated horse some 25 lengths further behind him.
He did, however, jump well, enabling him to finish the race and it is expected that he'll not only come on for the experience, but that a step into handicap company and the extended trip will suit him better, and if you're that way inclined, you can back Line Daois at 10/3 BOG.
The one he'll need to beat is likely to be Itstimeforapint, who was a consistent sort over hurdles, despite failing to win in seven attempts. He made his chasing bow on Boxing Day and was a winner by 22 lengths, although he is classed as a fortunate winner that day. He was second behind No Through Road coming over the last fence, when the leader fell and gave him the race.
Whether he's have caught him otherwise is now open to conjecture, he was still running a big race on debut and was well clear of the rest of the field. It's interesting, too, to note that No Through Road was a winner here over this course and distance on Wednesday, which makes Itstimeforapint a viable prospect at 5/2 BOG.
And a rare sortie across the water to take a look at hat-trick seeking Sharjah, who just loves it here at Dundalk. His last nine races stretching back over three months have all been on thisd track and foru win and four runner-up finishes, it's safe to say he handles conditions well enough. It's possible that he's a bit of a lazy sort, though, who just does enough to get by, never winning nor losing by very much.
Horses like that are difficult to handicap and as a result, he's only up 3lbs from his latest run, a C&D victory a fortnight ago and I wouldn't be surprised to see Sharjah go in again tonight at 9/4 BOG, probably at the expense of Eye of The Tiger, who I think is the biggest danger to the selection.
Eye of the Tiger was third (beaten by a length) in that C&D contest two weeks and his mark of 77 has been unchanged, so he's effectively three pounds better off here. I'd say that at the weights, he should beat Sharjah, but winning becomes a habit and the Tiger doesn't quite seem to have it. At 11/4 BOG, he's the perfect contingency plan here, but I do think he'll suffer a narrow defeat.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Itstimeforapint / Sharjah @ 9.56/1 (9/4 & 9/4 : Betfair SB & Paddy Power)
Itstimeforapint / Eye of the Tiger @ 11.19/1 (9/4 & 11/4 : Paddy Power)
Line Daois / Sharjah @ 12/1 (3/1 & 9/4 : Paddy Power)
Line Daois / Eye of the Tiger @ 14/1 (3/1 & 11/4 : Paddy Power)