Double Dutch, 23rd September 2015
After Monday's amuse-bouche of an 8.34/1 double success, came the all-you-can-eat buffet of Tuesday's winning double at silly odds on a day of drifters.
Three of my four selections drifted (some considerably) in the market, whilst one really shortened up. Three of them ran really well and one was disappointing. A simple application of Sod's Law tells you which one was poor.
As it was we had winners combining to give a double at advised odds of 14.75/1, which is a good day by any standards, but race 1 was won at 15/8 out from 13/8 and race 2 was won 10/1 out from 5/1, meaning the final payout was a whopping 30.625/1.
We also had the runner-up in race and with that one moving from 4/1 to 7/1, the forecast paid out at a very healthy 12.85/1, meaning that only Chief Entertainer underperformed, finishing 6th at Evens having been well backed from the morning 2/1.
Tuesday was another reminder of the need to use BOG bookies wherever possible, but I think both Matt and myself may well have mentioned it in the past.
And one last thing... we lost 21pts in August (mainly my doing!), but we're now 21.57pts up for September, meaing that we've recovered those losses and we've also ensured September ends in profit irrespective of what my next six sets of selections bring.
Tuesday's results were as follows:
Regulation : WON at 15/8 (adv 13/8)
Canicallyouback : 2nd at 7/1 (adv 4/1)
The Forecast paid £13.85 to a £1 stake here.
Canford Belle : WON at 10/1 (adv 5/1)
Chief Entertainer : 6th at Evs (adv 2/1)
Results to date:
680 winning selections from 2424 = 28.05%
217 winning bets in 629 days = 34.39%
P/L : +122.15pts (+9.72% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Wednesday is here and we're already hat-trick hunting in these...
Iffjack might well still be a maiden after 14 starts (5 x bumpers & 9 x hurdles), but has shown his best form in his last two runs and more is clearly expected of him as he makes a debut over fences and also on his first start in a handicap contest. Both trainer (Gordon Elliott) and jockey (Richard Johnson) are in good form and also have excellent records on this track.
In fact, the Elliott chasers are 39/129 (30.2% SR) this year alone and when you consider that here at Perth since 2008, they are 32/140 (22.9% SR) for 26.7pts (+19.1% ROI), you have to think that Iffjack should be in with a shout at 11/4 BOG today.
Little Pop, on the other hand, already has the benefit of having had a prior crack at fences and is also a dual winner over this trip via successes in both bumpers and over hurdles. He was a little keen/headstrong on his chasing debut last time out, but should improve for the experience and you know that he'll have been well schooled for today, as...
...he's trained by the meticulous Nigel Twiston-Davies who is certainly a man to follow around this time of year. During the months of August to October, his 5 to 8 yr old male chasers have won 91 of 321 races (28.4% SR) for 80.4pts (+31.2% ROI) and the team will be hopeful of a 100/30 BOG success with Little Pop today.
I can't promise another 10/1 winner at this track like we got yesterday, but I'll be surprised not to at least have a winner of some form from this 2yo maiden.
Gold Faith heads the betting at 9/4 BOG after a decent 4th place on debut at Leicester (Gd to Fm) 45 days ago. He wasn't beaten by too far at all and not only will he come on for having had the run, he's now dropped down in class and switched to a track where his trainer has had plenty of success already.
He's actually Ralph Beckett's only runner of the day and since 2010, Ralph's solo runners have a 20.6% strike rate (97/470), whilst in the same time frame, his runners switched to A/W racing for the first time after 1 to 4 runs on turf are 36/122 (29.5% SR) suggesting a run for our money at the very least from Gold Faith.
They won't have it their own way, though, as Messrs Appleby (C) and Buick await them with Rock Warbler, who has already finished 4th on debut and then improved to finish third at Chester despite unsuitably soft ground 12 days ago. Like Ralph Beckett above, Charlie Appleby has a good record switching horses to the A/W for the first time and other factors also seem to make this a good bet at 5/2 BOG.
Charlie's runners in 2yo, Class 5 maidens here at Kempton are 14/50 (28% SR) for 49.9pts (+99.8% ROI) with William Buick riding 3 winners from 8 and Charlie's runners turned back out within 4 to 15 days of a top 4 finish LTO are 72/209 (34.5% SR) with 2yr olds at Kempton winning 6 from 10, prompting thoughts of a good run from Rock Warbler today.
For the benefit of brevity, I've purposefully not expanded on the stats I've based the selections upon, but I'm always happy to deal with queries via the comments box below.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Iffjack / Gold Faith @ 10.38/1 (5/2 & 9/4 Coral & Stan James)
Iffjack / Rock Warbler @ 11.25/1 (5/2 & 5/2 : Coral & Hills)
Little Pop / Gold Faith @ 12/1 (3/1 & 9/4 : Coral & Stan James)
Little Pop / Rock Warbler @ 13/1 (3/1 & 5/2 : 10Bet & Coral)