Double Dutch, 24th August 2015
Another frustrating 1-2/2-3 day, something we've seen all too often in the past month or so. The final insult was that the 12/1 shot which beat us in the first of our pair of Saturday races was clear top-rated on Geegeez Gold's speed ratings.
No matter, for we're knocking on the door, and it will open again soon enough. We beat SP comfortably on three of the horses with the other going off the same price as advised. That will always be the route to long-term profit in this game.
Saturday's results were as follows:
Templier: 2nd at 6/4 (adv 7/4)
Invermere: 3rd at 2/1 (adv 2/1)
Carenina: WON at 15/8 (adv 9/4)
Tara Time : 2nd at 3/1 (adv 15/2)
Results to date:
655 winning selections from 2327 = 28.15%
206 winning bets in 603 days = 34.16%
P/L : +106.20pts (+8.81% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
The threat of a lot of rain looms over the turf fixtures today, making selections tricky. It is sure to be wet at Brighton, and we have the relative certainty of the Kempton track, so we'll try those...
We start in the world famous (actually, it is quite a famous race of its type) Ian Carnaby Selling Handicap, over six furlongs on what is expected to be deep ground. Bill Turner's Brean Splash Susie has won two of her last three - both in sellers - and was placed here on heavy ground last season. That's a compelling proposition in a race where her rivals have gone a collective 126 (!) runs since winning.
A couple who could bounce back are Time Medicean and Telegraph, with preference for the former. He's been second on three of his five soft ground spins, and may again have to settle for that position here, though he remains the most likely to turn over Zebra Bill's jolly after a really good four length fifth in the grey's race at Newmarket (Class 4) last time. This Class 6 is a big drop in grade.
We'll not have long to wait if we have anything to wait for, as leg two is the very next race, a nursery on the beach at Kempton. Although not normally my cup of tea for a bet like this, I was very taken with Premier Currency's win last time over course and distance. He absolutely bolted up, with only the re-opposing Captain Gerald getting anywhere near him (Captain Thunderbolt was four and a half lengths third).
Proven under today's conditions, he is the logical starting point. They then bet 6/1 the field, which gives us a 'free go' at a nice price, and the one I'm drawn to more than the rest is Sir Mark Prescott's Cote d'Azur. Making his handicap debut over a trip more akin to that for which he was bred, Sir Mark needs little introduction in the handicap first time stakes.
However, for the newcomers, let me give you a couple of numbers: in the past year he has won with 7 of 29 such runners, placing with another 7, for an SP profit of 9.13 units. In the last 30 days, the Baronet has scored with 13 of his 39 runners (33.33%), again for a profit at SP.
Others, notably Little Lotte and York Minster, are feared in a race where the jolly looks set to go in again unless anything - such as the back up pick - takes a giant step forward on current track evidence.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Brean Splash Susie/ Premier Currency @ 12.75/1 (4/1 & 7/4 : Betfair Sportsbook)
Brean Splash Susie / Cote d'Azur @ 39/1 (4/1 & 7/1 : Betfair Sportsbook)
Time Medicean/ Premier Currency @ 9.31/1 (11/4 & 7/4 : Betfair Sportsbook)
Time Medicean/ Cote d'Azur @ 29/1 (11/4 & 7/1 : Betfair Sportsbook)