Double Dutch, 24th February 2014
The latest in a string of decent-priced winners was to no avail yesterday, for Cadeau George's excellent 6/1 victory in a 3 mile slog on heavy ground counted for nothing in the end.
That's because both Willie Mullins' runners had been turned over at Naas 10 minutes earlier. City Slicker was very disappointing back in last of the six runners, some 23 lengths off the winner, whilst the best we could get was the runner-up berth claimed by Vicky De L'Oasis.
She had nothing to give late on and went down by three lengths.
Yesterday's results were as follows:
Vicky De L'Oasis: 2nd at 13/8 (adv 5/2)
City Slicker: last of 6 at 9/4 (adv 5/2)
Cadeau George: won at 6/1 (adv 9/2)
Join The Clan: PU at 4/5! (adv 6/5)
Results to date:
163 winning selections from 566 = 28.80%
55 winning bets in 150 days = 36.67%
P/L : +51.63pts (+17.44% ROI)
So, we have now reached 150 days' worth of selections and I'm really pleased with both the strike rate and the profitability achieved to date. But, there's no resting on laurels here at geegeez, I now have to crack on and kickstart the next 150 with these!
Moonlight Maggie went down by just a head two starts ago and was travelling really well and looking like putting in a big performance last time out, before a fall three from home. She looks a lot better than an 80-rated chaser to me and with her usual 5lb claimer on board today, she's getting chunks of weight from most of her rivals. She'll not struggle iwht the soft ground underfoot either, as both those last two runs were on soft or heavy ground, and she'll encounter both here today and this looks a good chance to break her duck at 9/4 BOG.
Another who loves the mud is Dingo Bay, whose record at this level and on heavy ground has to make him a big player at 4/1 BOG here. He's 3 from 3 on heavy ground, 2 from 3 over this trip and has three wins and a place from four runs at Class 5 level. he comes here in decent nick, having won three from his last five races and should be there or thereabouts once again today.
Last Monday, I backed Doldrums at 5/1 on Stat of the Day, courtesy of the trainer's record here at Wolverhampton, the jockey's record over the longer trips and the horse's own record at the track. Doldrums was second last time out, meaning a losing bet for me, but the reasoning behind the selection (full details here) was still valid and she could very well go one better in a weaker-looking race here today. It is a weaker contest and the defection of English Summer has weakened it further, meaning the current best price on offer is 9/4 BOG with Bet365.
Doldrums does however sometimes find one too good for her (just like last week) and at 9/2 BOG, Fantasy King represents both value and real danger here. He makes his debut for his new yard today and has the benefit of the experienced Tom Queally on board for his first run in the UK. He comes off the back of a decent winter hurdling campaign with a win and to narrow defeats in his last three contests, but he also has some good past form on the level.
6 placed finishes (inc 2 wins) from 12 runs on turf/All-Weather suggest the drop down in trip shouldn't inconvenience him too much here. He has won over 1m6f and has two decent runner-up finishes at 11 and 12 furlongs, so if he fires first time out, he could well land a bit of a surprise. I suppose the fear is that he'll need the run, but that is reflected in that 9/2 BOG pricetag
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Moonlight Maggie / Doldrums @ 9.56/1 (9/4 & 9/4 : Bet365)
Moonlight Maggie / Fantasy King @ 16.88/1 (9/4 & 9/2 : BetFred)
Dingo Bay / Doldrums @ 14/1 (4/1 & 2/1 : BetVictor, SkyBet & PP)
Dingo Bay / Fantasy King @ 26.50/1 (4/1 & 9/2 : Stan James)