Double Dutch, 24th January 2014
Matt's Shortlist came up trumps for us in race 1 yesterday, as Abi Scarlet took her record to 4/5 at Southwell (4/4 over C&D) with a convincing 5-length victory. The fact that she'd drifted out from 2/1 to 11/4 meant we'd a few more pennies to play with for the second half of our bet.
Where Tidal Dance proved the better of our two runners finishing a place and 16 lengths ahead of Big Society. Unfortunately Tidal Dance was unable to reel the leader in and had to settle for the runner-up berth, leaving us three parts of a length shy of a nice 10.25/1 double.
It was, however, at least good to get back amongst the winners, I suppose.
Yesterday's results were as follows:
Abi Scarlet : won at 11/4 (adv 2/1)
Spitfire : 3rd at 6/4 (adv 2/1)
Tidal Dance : 2nd at 5/4 (adv 2/1)
Big Society : 3rd at 5/2 (adv 5/2)
Results to date:
127 winning selections from 444 = 28.60%
41 winning doubles in 119 days = 34.45%
P/L : +12.04pts (+5.10% ROI)
Late afternoon action for a Friday:
Four winners and three places from their last ten runners suggests that Paul Nicholls' string are hitting top gear and Atlantic Roller could well maintain that charge here today. He was, admittedly well beaten last time out at Cheltenham in November, but it pays to remind ourselves that was his first run for 12 months and he was entitled to need it. He's a half-brother to decent winning stayers and prior to his lay-off had looked strong and full of promise when recording a seven lengths victory at Exeter on his hurdling debut. I'm happy to take a chance on him bouncing back to form at 15/8 BOG (Coral) here.
The Donald McCain yard is also in good nick at present (9/33 in the last two weeks alone) and his horses tend to run well fresh. Therefore, I expect the 5/2 BOG chance Tornado Bob to produce another of his bold bids to take control of the race and dictate affairs. He's likely to set a fair pace here today as he'll seek to make all and if allowed to open up an easy lead, could be very difficult to catch/pass. He stays well, he generally jumps well and likes some cut in the ground. If Atlantic Roller doesn't fulfill his promise today, conditions are ideal for Tornado Bob .
Shawkantango comes here looking for his fourth win in five starts and also his fourth career success over course and distance. He ran on well to finish strongly at Southwell over this trip a fortnight ago, where he won by 2.5 lengths and a similar performance today would be enough to keep his fine run going. He is raised 5lbs for that last win, but his jockey's claim is 7lbs today, as opposed to 5lbs LTO and Adam McLean knows the horse well having steered him to three wins from thirteen already, including their last two races together.
9/4 BOG about Shawkantango looks quite attractive here, but he'll not have it all his own way and you could make a case for most of his rivals today, but the one who interests me the most is Electric Qatar, who can currently be backed at 7/2 BOG with Coral. This one is trained by Tom Dascombe and will be ridden by Richard Kingscote and this combination have a 26% strike rate here at Dunstall Park in the last couple of years (28 from 108).
The horse has two wins and a place from just six runs here in the past and both victories have come from his three efforts over course and distance. He has struggled from very wide draws of late, but a field of just six runners will keep him closer to the action for a yard that's back amongst the winners again.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Atlantic Roller / Shawkantango @ 7.63/1 (Coral 15/8 & 2/1)
Atlantic Roller / Electric Qatar @ 11.94/1 (Coral 15/8 & 7/2)
Tornado Bob / Shawkantango @ 10.38/1 (BetVictor 5/2 & 9/4)
Tornado Bob / Electric Qatar @ 13/1 (BetVictor 5/2 & 3/1)