Double Dutch, 24th July 2014
A 2/1 winner coupled with a runner-up beaten by just over a length was as good as it got on Wednesday, folks.
Quinsman looked to have every chance, holding a narrow lead over the last fence, but it's a long run in at Worcester and he was outstayed by a 16/1 shot who landed a bit of a surprise win.
This meant I'd only my personal pride ( and a double with the 11/4 winner from Stat of the Day) to play for and Bold Lass ran a well-timed race to score by just over two lengths. No glory or financial reward for Double Dutch, but another winner to the tally, taking us to almost 300 winners in 9 months and we're just the one double away from a century.
Wednesday's results were as follows:
Quinsman: 2nd at 2/1 (adv 13/8)
Lisheen Hill: 3rd at 7/4 (adv 11/4)
Bold Lass: won at 2/1 (adv 5/2)
Pearl Nation: u/p at 15/8 (adv 5/2)
Results to date:
297 winning selections from 1050 = 28.29%
99 winning bets in 274 days = 36.13%
P/L : +69.16pts (+12.57% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Thursday looks tricky,but I've decided to go with these...
A poor looking contest and it will probably go to one the runners towards the bottom of the weights and that's where you'll find Assoluta, who despite still being a maiden after 14 attempts, still looks the one to beat. She's actually the form horse in the race, having finished third on each of her last three outings and never beaten by far (8 lengths in total). two of those runs were here on similarly firm ground, so we know she likes the track and its conditions, but both of those runs here were over 1m 3.5f, where she weakened and faded late on.
The step back down to 1m 3f could be exactly what she needs right now and she's probably her yard's best chance of success today, as they aim to maintain their recent fine run of 5 wins from 15 in the last fortnight and Asslta is a 7/4 BOG chance to extend the run.
I'm expecting a better run from Soiree Dete than she put up last time, also over this course and distance. She was last home of 8 after having led until 2f from home. She weakened quite quickly that day an slipped to a 14 lengths defeat. She was well fancied that day, but she didn't stay the trip. This isn't too surprising, as she had been off the track for just over 11 months and will benefit from having had that run.
Luke Morris rides again and he and trainer Sir Mark Prescott won this race last year, so will be hoping Soiree Dete gets home at 9/4 BOG to repeat the feat.
The top three in the market are the form horses here, but I'm going to discard Fourni, leaving me with my required two runners.
Elsie is currently installed as 6/4 BOG favourite and that's no great surprise, as she;s won two of her last three starts and looks to be improving all the time. She was particularly impressive at Roscommon last time out when beating a 5/4 favourite quite comfortably. She had the race won 2 from home and despite being eased right down, still won by almost 6 lengths. You'd have to think, on that basis, that if she ran like that again, she'd win again and that's probably where I'd be, but for the double penalty she now carries.
The added weight might just help Beach of Falesa reverse the form from Punchestown when she finished 8.5 lengths behind Elsie. Beach of Falesa was a useful mare on the flat, who ran at Group 3 and Listed level, so she'll not be found wanting for ground speed. in fact she was 5th of 10 in her last flat race, beaten by just five lengths in a 1m5f Listed event. She's still unexposed over hurdles with just four starts to her name and there's probably plenty more to come from her.
That said, the penny did seem to have dropped last time out over hurdles, when winning by five lengths at Wexford 20 days ago. Hurry Kitty was back in fourth that day, some twelve lengths adrift, but she turned out again last week and won at Killarney, albeit in a bumper. At a best price of 5/2 BOG, she looks a decent alternative.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Assoluta / Elsie @ 5.88/1 (7/4 & 6/4 : Paddy Power)
Assoluta / Beach of Falesa @ 8.63/1 (7/4 & 5/2 : Paddy Power)
Soiree Dete / Elsie @ 7.13/1 (9/4 & 6/4 : Paddy Power)
Soiree Dete / Beach of Falesa @ 10.38/1 (9/4 & 5/2 : Paddy Power)