Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 24th July 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 24th July 2015

Bishops Leap defied a drift out to 7/2 to win at Newbury last night just about holding on to beat our other runner Royal Toast by a neck in the first of two tight finishes to our races.

I was happy they finished in that order as it's the order I predicted and also because the forecast was higher that way round!

(We don't officially advise/record forecasts, but many of you do play those bets. Those who do got a win at 10.86/1 here).

Then, 50 minutes later at Doncaster, the first three home were only separated by a neck and then a head, but unfortunately we just missed out, taking second and third place, as both Aljafer and Margaret's Mission stayed on strongly, but couldn't quite reel in the Johnston runner who had made all and just hung on.

So, a neck was all that separated us from a near 15/1 double on the day and we weren't too far shy of a forecast double either, but a miss is as good as a mile in this game!

Thursday's results were as follows:

Bishops Leap : WON at 7/2 (adv 9/4)
Royal Toast : 2nd at 9/4 (adv 5/2)
The forecast paid £11.86 to a £1 stake
----------------------------------------------------
Aljafer : 2nd at 7/4 (adv 5/2)
Margaret's Mission : 3rd at 3/1 (adv 7/2)

Results to date:
633 winning selections from 2229 = 28.40%
201 winning bets in 578 days = 34.78%

Stakes: 1155.50pts
Returns: 1286.31pts
P/L : +130.81pts (+11.32% ROI)

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

On a busy Friday, I'm going with these...

3.05 Thirsk :

Keith Dalgleish has a good record here at Thirsk and backing his runners here blindly is profitable with an ROI of just over 61% and his entrant here, Dark Defender comes here seeking a hat-trick after career finishes of 611 to date. He won a maiden at Ayr over this trip almost 7 weeks ago and followed that up with another win at York last/next time out.

That York run was 13 days ago at a higher grade than this and was also his handicap (nursery) debut and he stayed on strongly to land the near £10k prize. He should come on for the experience and looks very progressive and the reason Dark Defender is as long as 11/4 BOG in places is presumably because of his wide draw, but stall 1 of 9 isn't insurmountable and the price offers some value in my opinion.

The same 11/4 BOG can be had about Dutch Mist, who has been given a far better draw in stall 8 and also comes here on a hat-trick, after three impressive runs in the last seven weeks or so. Beaten by less than 2 lengths on debut over 5f in early June, she was staying on well at the finish and relished the step up to 6f next time out.

That next run proved to be a course and distance win here at Thirsk, where she beat Star Focus ( won next time out) by a length on similar good to firm ground as she'll face today, before going on to win on her own handicap (nursery) debut at Chepstow next/last time out, 16 days ago at Catterick where she showed her resilience and versatility, digging deep to win on good to soft ground.

Receiving a pound from Dark Defender, she'd be my marginal pick here, but the better draw and the 3lb claim from the very capable Shane Gray make Dutch Mist my preferred option here today. Either way, I expect this to be a cracking race.

*

5.50 Chepstow :

Apart from not winning, Stroke of Midnight has done little wrong of late, finishing as runner-up in her last three runs, going down by just a neck on her last two outings, firstly over 5f and then LTO stepped up to today's 6f. She had to overcome a tricky draw at Lingfield last time out and expended too much energy chasing the leaders out wide, meaning she didn't have enough left once in front and she got reeled in late on.

Despite there being 12 runners here, this does look a slightly weaker contest and with her trainer Richard Hannon having a good record (8/38 overall and 4/12 in maidens) here at this track, you'd expect another decent effort from Stroke of Midnight at 5/2 BOG, despite her seeming to always find one just too good.

And that could well be the case again this evening in the shape of Lavinia Rose, who is also priced up at 5/2 BOG in places and also comes here off the back of a good run as runner-up last time out. She was beaten by half a length behind Pop Culture at Newbury over today's trip at Newbury 13 days ago, but had the rest of the 15-runner field spread out behind her (almost 4L back to the 3rd placed horse).

A similar level of performance might be enough here, but it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect Lavinia Rose to come on again for that run and with the Kingscote/Beckett combination a successful one at this track, we could be in for a tight finish and hopefully a DD 1-2!

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Dutch Mist / Lavinia Rose @ 11.25/1 (5/2 & 5/2 : Bet365 & Ladbrokes)
Dutch Mist / Stroke of Midnight @ 12.13/1 (11/4 & 5/2 : Paddy Power)
Dark Defender / Lavinia Rose @ 11.25/1 (5/2 & 5/2 : Bet365 & Ladbrokes)
Dark Defender / Stroke of Midnight @ 12.13/1 (11/4 & 5/2 : Stan James)

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8 replies
  1. joncon1 says:

    Hi there. Really love these tips but I am struggling to get on at anywhere near the prices that you are getting , leaving me with no profit. Also can’t get anything more than £7 bets on with Coral despite having turned a very very small profit with them over the last few years.
    Do you place these tips at the same time everyday and are the bookies taking note of them and reducing their liability?

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi John

      These bets very often drift out at SP, meaning a better return at BOG. And I haven’t noticed any marked reduction in the odds available in any case, except where non-runners impact the entire market.

      If you’re having issues getting on with a specific layer, that’s obviously a completely different situation, and a personal one to you rather than anything related specifically to Double Dutch.

      Hope that all makes sense and seems fair.
      Matt

      • FGR says:

        I use to have similar problems with SOTD but not anymore. It’s a case of opening multiple accounts and getting organised. Whatever you do don’t keep hitting one bookie.
        I quite enjoy the ‘catch me if you can’ element of beating the bookies. It’s a bit like their Tom against my Jerry! (I’m still a big kid at heart!) 🙂

  2. joncon1 says:

    I have over twenty different accounts and put these bets on within 30 mins of them being posted. The best odds I could get on Dutch mist was 9/4 and on Dark Defender it was 2-1. I only asked to see if anyone else was having the same problem and wasn’t meant to be a slight against Double Dutch which I enjoy.
    With regards to my situation with Coral I was just interested to see if other people had had problems getting on with them. I’ve had BOG withdrawn from 3 other accounts which seemed pretty harsh as I’m a small time gambler who hadn’t had any real success with these bookmakers. On the other hand there is one site where I’ve taken between 3 and 5k every year for the last 5 years and they’ve never limited me in any way and regularly offer me free bets.

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi John

      No, of course, no slight inferred!

      The reasons for bookies withdrawing offers/limiting punters are only known to them and, I’m fairly confident, not even known to them in many cases (computer algorithms).

      I too have an account which has been very good to me, and from which I still have the full range of concessions and free bets. Long may it continue!

      Matt

      p.s. regarding the specifics of you not being able to get on that DD, I’d be surprised if that was a regular occurrence. May just have been those two horses that were well backed for reasons outside of DD.

    • FGR says:

      I think Matt’s right about the computer algorithms alerting the trading rooms. I recently took Sky for a three figure sum but put a few quid into the slots to keep them happy. Little things like this do seem to work (surprisingly), which gives some credence to the algorithm theory.

  3. lickybits says:

    funny how things change, when i was losing consistently the girls behind the counter at my local bookies at betfred used to take my bets without a second glance, and i had the feeling they thought i was another mug punter wasting his money…

    but since i’ve been following DD and using the form cards on GEEGEEZ they now stop and look closely at my bets before they take them, i’ve even had the comment ‘you’ve been getting quite lucky lately’, even had some of the regulars in there trying to see what im betting on…

    been keeping my bets small for now, a few quid each way etc, trying to build a betting bank.

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