Double Dutch, 24th May 2014
Comrade Bond was a winner in race 1 yesterday with Glorious Star just a nose away from completing a 1-2 finish for us there at Yarmouth. This, of course, raised my hopes of finally smashing this run of winners paired with placers, but once again those hopes were dashed over at Goodwood a couple of hours later.
There, as I thought might be the case, little separated my two selections Stereo Love and Tullia who finished within a length and a quarter of each other, but they had to both settle for the placings (again!), as bottom weight Starlight Serenade took the honours.
Friday's results were as follows:
Comrade Bond: won at 2/1 (adv 11/4)
Glorious Star: 3rd at 10/3 (adv 2/1)
Stereo Love: 2nd at 11/4 (adv 10/3)
Tullia: 3rd at 7/2 (adv 4/1)
Results to date:
238 winning selections from 854 = 27.87%
76 winning bets in 223 days = 34.08%
P/L : +35.82pts (+8.07% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
It's just a good job that I'm not one to make excuses, as I'd be running out by now!
Saturday's hopefuls are as follows...
Where I expect either of French Navy (9/4 BOG) or Nabucco (11/4 BOG) to win. Both seem to have the right sort of profile for this race and both should be well suited by the conditions, so let's quickly take a look at both.
French Navy looks to be Godolphin's best hope of taking this and he's a former group 3 winner over course and distance.He has hit the ground running this season, having two outings since his winter break. He was beaten by a length into second place in a Group 3 contest on his first run of the season with Gospel Choir, a subsequent double Group 2 winner, two places and 1.5 lengths further back. He was then third behind Ocean Tempest in a Listed race at Ascot and thae winner has won another Listed contest since then.
French Navy is 1 from 1 here at Goodwood (C&D win), his record on soft ground is 1223 and he's 1102 at today's trip.
The rain and the easing of the ground could well play to Nabucco's strengths. If he's race ready after a break, he'll look to pick up where he left off after a great season last time round with a record reading 321211 with wins at Listed Class and on heavy and soft ground all over today's trip. He was second here last year on good to soft ground and the more it rains, the better his chance is going to be. He has won four times over today's trip and he's 210211 on any ground worse than good.
Over the last 18 months, Lac Sacre has been the model of consistency, winning twice in 12 runs and making the frame in all bar one of those races. He was a winner on his only previous visit to Ffos Las, that was over course and distance on soft ground two months ago, so conditions should suit him again. He is 2 from 5 on soft ground (02113) and has won two of his last three outings at today's trip and can be backed at 11/4 BOG today.
The downside is that his consistency means he's constantly creeping up the weights, leaving him vulnerable to a more favourably weighted opponent, hence his massive place strike rate and not so many wins. I fear the same fate will befall him today with the presence of the 15/8 favourite Zarzal.
Zarzal has been in good form over fences and gets to run off a mark some 13lbs lower than his chase mark, now he reverts back to hurdling. He absolutely sauntered home at Ludlow 13 days ago and still won by 15 lengths off today's mark and whilst he was only third at Market Rasen last time out, this looks a weaker affair. He's a three-time winner at this trip and acts well on soft and heavy ground, as is often the case at Ffos Las!
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
French Navy / Zarzal @ 8.34/1 (9/4 & 15/8 : BetVictor)
French Navy / Lac Sacre @ 11.19/1 (9/4 & 11/4 : Bet365)
Nabucco / Zarzal @ 9.78/1 (11/4 & 15/8 : BetVictor)
Nabucco / Lac Sacre @ 13.06/1 (11/4 & 11/4 : Bet365 & BetVictor)