Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 24th October 2013

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 24th October 2013

We got back to winning ways yesterday, as both my alternate picks Sudden Wonder and Red Rock were successful. The SPs were 8/11 and 9/4, but by taking the early prices we secured a 6/1 return about a 4.6/1 double, further reiterating the message about using BOG bookies!

Yesterday's results were as follows:

Sudden Wonder: won at 11/10 (SP 8/11)
Cape Wrath: 3rd of 4!
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Red Rock: won at 9/4
Niki Royal: 4th of 5!

Trial to date:
54 winning selections from 175 = 30.86%
16 winning doubles in 49 days = 32.65%

Stakes: 96.0pts
Returns: 98.4pts

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P/L : +2.4pts (+2.50% ROI)

We've given ourselves a bit more breathing space, a gap which I hope to widen with these today...

2.55 Carlisle

Upswing is the likely winner here for me, as I expect him to pick up where he left off with a C&D win here last time out. He's still very unexposed, having only made four starts to date and after finishes of 434 in fairly large (14 to 16 runners) fields, scored on his handicap ebut last March. He's up 6lbs for that win, but provided he goes well fresh, I'd see him as the 7/4 victor here with Coral and/or Stan James.

Yorkist also returns from a break (6 months for this one) and is an interesting debutant for Brian Ellison, who does so well with horses taken from other yards. Despite not having won any of his 10 races today, he ran very well to finish second in two C&D handicaps here in the spring for Micky Hammond and the 14lb pull he has from the top weighted runner in the race (he gets 6lbs from the fav) might just be enough for him to get off the mark at odds of 7/2 with Betfred and/or Paddy Power.

3.45 Ludlow

If Woodbank gets round this time, then he's sure to be involved in the final shake-up, based on his chasing debut here 15 days ago. He travelled really strongly that day and looked a winner all over, until he took umbrage with the 4th from home and also obliterated it in a terrible error of judgement. That was his first run for almost 17 months and he'll come on for the effort and won't mind the drop in trip. In short, if he completes the course, the 11/10 on offer from Paddy Power might well be easy money.

Oyster Shell, however, will be waiting to pounce on any jumping errors and although this is his chasing debut, all his breeding suggests that will be the right environment for him. He improved over hurdles during the spring and was very consistent with finishes of 32132 from his last 5 runs. He returned to the track almost four weeks ago after a four month break and ran really well to finish second at Market Rasen. I think there's more to come from this one now sent chasing and looks a decent value proposition at 100/30 with BetVictor.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Upswing / Woodbank @ 5.51 with Paddy Power
Upswing / Oyster Shell @ 11.38 with BetVictor
Yorkist / Woodbank @ 9.45 with Paddy Power
Yorkist / Oyster Shell @ 18.78 with BetVictor

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2 replies
    • Chris Worrall says:

      Hi Jon,
      I just don’t like his chances here. He’s quite possibly the 10/1 outsider of 4 for a reason.
      His jumping looked a bit suspect last time out, which was only 4 days ago, so I think this might also come too soon for him.
      I also think that 2 miles is a little on the sharp side for him nowadays with all his recent form coming at 2m4f or longer.

      But, at the end of the day, it’s just an opinion.

      Chris

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