Double Dutch, 25th November 2015

Double Dutch, 25th November 2015

What Could She Be led Nosey Barker home by 4 lengths in our opener yesterday to kick things off in style with an Exacta that paid almost 8/1, but this has happened frequently of late with us ultimately going on to miss the main objective.

However, today was different, as Sirop de Menthe justifed the strong support from the market by winning comfortably by a dozen lengths to land an 11.25/1 doubl on what was a very successful day!

Monday's results were as follows:

What Could She Be : WON at 5/2 (adv 2/1)
Nosey Barker : 2nd at 11/8 (adv 3/1)
The Exacta paid £8.90 here!
Sirop de Menthe : WON at 5/4 (adv 5/2)
Rock of Leon : PU at 5/2 (adv 15/8)

Results to date:
739 winning selections from 2635 = 28.05%
233 winning bets in 683 days = 34.11%

Stakes: 1365.00pts
Returns: 1463.42pts
P/L : +98.42pts (+7.21% ROI)

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Here are Wednesday's selected races...

4.45 Kempton :

After just six starts, Dubawi Light is lightly raced for a 4 yr old and produced an excellent piece of form to win here over track and track a week ago to take his career A/W record to 311, suggesting he has a real liking for this surface and now allowed to compete in this level of race under a penalty, he should be there or thereabouts once more.

Adam Kirby retains the ride and he has been in great form (20% SR) himself over the last couple of weeks and having ridden the horse here last time out, will know what's required. As well as track, trip and jockey all ticking boxes, field size can be important in these races and Dubawi Light's two previous wins on the A/W have been in races of 12 runners and at 2/1 BOG, this is the one to beat.

And with there not being much decent recent form on display elsewhere, I'm going to side with a possible improver as my backup here in the shape of the 3yr old Fern Owl, who makes just his sixth start and only his third in handicap company. He showed promise when third on debut on his only previous attempt at this trip and whilst he has struggled for consistency since, it's fair to say that he's been messed about a bit with regards to having to tackle different surfaces and trips.

He ran well at Wolverhampton last time out, beaten into fourth place by just two lengths over 8.5f and with him doing all his best work staying on at the finish and the winner going on to win again since, this step back up in trip might show Fern Owl in a different light and at a generally available 9/2 BOG, we should at least get a run for our money.


6.45 Kempton :

Spanish Squeeze was only denied by a nose at Chelmsford last time out when stepping up to 1m2f for the very first time and the way he finished, staying on strongly, suggests an extra two furlongs today might just suit him. That run also came off the back of a seven month absence from the track, so he could well have needed the run.

Previously he had won on this track when landing his maiden back in October 2014 on his only visit here and this lightly raced 3yr old is clearly the least exposed after just four outings and with the Hugo Palmer horses in such fine form, a win for Spanish Squeeze at 9/4 BOG wouldn't be too much of a shock.

Hamelin, however, is a horse in form finishing 2012 since his return from a  441-day absence back in September and with the "0" coming on soft ground over 1m6f at Haydock, I'm happy to ignore it. That leaves him with three runs this winter so far, all on A/W and all over this 1m4f trip, finishing 212.

He was a touch unlucky last time out, going down by just a neck in a similar Listed event over this track and trip, when headed very late on by a horse effectively 6lbs well in at the weights, so it was a decent effort to almost get there. Hamelin does have a wide draw to overcome, but it's not imperative that he leads early on and as long as he keeps in touch, will have every chance at 4/1 BOG here.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows, based on prices available at 8.35am

Dubawi Light / Spanish Squeeze @ 8.75/1 (2/1 & 9/4 : Bet365, Betway, Coral, SkyBet)
Dubawi Light / Hamelin @ 14/1 (2/1 & 4/1 : generally)
Fern Owl / Spanish Squeeze @ 16.88/1 (9/2 & 9/4 : Bet365)
Fern Owl / Hamelin @ 26.50/1 (9/2 & 4/1 : generally)

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