Double Dutch, 26th December 2014
Monday's results were pretty good on the whole, considering we came away empty handed. We'd the winner and the third in our first race with the only surprise about Jupiter Rex's victory being the drift out from 15/8 to 3/1, giving us a chance of a decent priced double, should we have the winner at Wolverhampton.
Unfortunately, another drifter, Sarlat (15/2 from 5/1) was a length shy of giving us an excellent Christmas present of a 33/1 double, as she just couldn't rein in the eventual winner. Main pick and well backed favourite Ambella was the disappointment here, finishing a further half length back.
She loomed large late on and looked to have the race at her mercy, but seemed reluctant to pass the leaders, which is possibly why she's still a maiden!
Monday's results were as follows:
Jupiter Rex: won at 3/1 (adv 15/8)
Alanjou: 3rd at 6/1 (adv 11/2)
Sarlat: 2nd at 15/2 (adv 5/1)
Ambella: 3rd at 7/4 (adv 5/2)
Results to date:
444 winning selections from 1542 = 28.79%
141 winning bets in 400 days = 35.25%
P/L : +97.92pts (+12.25% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Lots of racing on Boxing Day, of course, but I'm not entirely convinced that helps our cause. There is a school of thought that suggests our needle is just hidden in a bigger haystack today, but I think we've more than a fighting chance with these...
I quite like the chances of Retrieve The Stick today (especially as a possible E/W bet), despite her being as long as 7/1 BOG in places. She's a very consistent, yet lightly raced 5yr old who was runner-up in three of her four bumper runs before finishing 3511 in four hurdles efforts. She effectively comes here on a hat-trick, but hasn't raced since the 4th January this year. This long layoff will be contributing to her price tag, but if she's ready for this one, could well cause problems...
...for the 7/4 BOG favourite Jukebox Melody who also comes here seeking a hat-trick, but his two latest runs have been in the last six weeks or so. He's clearly in good form/heart etc and will be fancied to take what doesn't look too tough a race on paper. A C&D winner two starts ago and won by an easy 34 lengths last time out has been hit with a 16lb rise in weights, but that might not be enough to stop his recent upturn in form since wearing a hood (2/2 in the headgear).
Adriana des Mottes won two of her five hurdles starts and was runner-up in one of her defeats, before making a winning chasing debut at Fairyhouse four weeks ago, making excellent use of the huge weight allowances afforded to her as a four year old female. Once again, she carries virtually now eight here and if she runs like she did last time out when just edging out the well fancied (and 158-rated hurdler) Rule The World, she could well take this at 5/2 BOG.
She should come on for having experienced the bigger obstacles, especially as that run come after a 30-week absence from the track. Her yard is generally amongst the winners, but their 6/11 record in the last week is exceptional and they'll expect to add to their tally here with Adriana des Mottes.
But to do so, she'll have to see off another highly-rated ex-hurdler, Gilgamboa, who ran off a mark of 140 in his last effort over timber (Cheltenham Festival Supreme Novice Hurdle) and then also had a long break (243 days) before making a winning debut over fences. He won by a length and a half over 2 miles at Navan seven weeks ago and the step up in trip shouldn't bother him too much, as he won over hurdles on heavy ground over 2m 4f this time last year.
Gilgamboa is also entitled to come on for that run and without too many miles on his clock (six races to date : 131101), he might just be able to concede 18lbs to the filly and prevail at 15/8 BOG here.
4 x 0.5pt doubles as follows:
Jukebox Melody / Gilgamboa @ 6.91/1 (7/4 & 15/8 : BetVictor & Betfred)
Jukebox Melody / Adriana des Mottes @ 8.63/1 (7/4 & 5/2 : BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports & Coral)
Retrieve The Stick / Gilgamboa @ 23.30/1 (8/1 & 17/10 : Betbright)
Retrieve The Stick / Adriana des Mottes @ 28.25/1 (8/1 & 9/4 : Betbright)